European Union leaders will debate next week whether to reward Russia for withdrawing its forces from security zones in Georgia by resuming talks with the Kremlin on a long-term partnership agreement.
The argument pits countries such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain, which are eager to bring relations with Russia back to normal, against others such as the Baltic states, Hungary, Poland, Sweden and the UK, which say it is too early to lift a measure imposed less than six weeks ago.
EU leaders decided at an emergency summit on September 1 to postpone talks on the partnership accord, because of Russia's invasion of Georgia and its recognition of the breakaway enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
EU foreign ministers will discuss the issue at a meeting in Luxembourg next Monday, but the final decision will rest with the bloc's heads of state and government, who will gather at a summit in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday.
Russia said on Thursday that it had pulled out all its forces from security zones in Georgia that adjoin Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
But there is disagreement among EU countries about whether that constitutes full compliance with the terms of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Georgia brokered by Nicolas Sarkozy, the president of France.
EU leaders said on September 1 that the resumption of talks on the partnership agreement would require Russian forces to withdraw from positions occupied before fighting erupted in Georgia on August 7.
However, EU governments acknowledge that in practice they cannot expel Russia's forces from Abkhazia or South Ossetia, or do much in the short term to reverse Moscow's de facto partition of Georgia.
Some EU governments, such as Germany and Italy, are unhappy with the idea of "punishing" Russia because they blame Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's president, for ordering an attack on South Ossetia before the Russian invasion.
These and other European countries are nervous about offering Nato membership to Georgia, putting them on a collision course with the US, which wants the alliance to place Georgia on a formal path to membership at a Nato meeting in December.
In spite of these differences, all EU governments will do their best to forge a common position next week, because they are conscious that their voice counts for more in Moscow when they present a united front.
Moreover, all are keen to study the diplomatic positions that Moscow will adopt when talks start in Geneva on Wednesday on the security situation in Georgia.
Russia says it will use the Geneva talks to call for an arms embargo on Georgia.
At Monday's meeting, EU foreign ministers will also discuss ways to strengthen ties with three of Russia's neighbours – Belarus, Moldova and Uzbekistan.
Ministers may decide to lift a visa ban on some officials in Belarus, but this will not be extended to anyone considered to have been involved in the "disappearances" of political opponents of Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus's president.
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