Slow pace of reform irks Jordanians

Since the start of the Arab spring last year, Jordan has witnessed three changes of government, an overhaul of the constitution, a plan to improve the electoral system and a catalogue of royal speeches promising political reform.

What Jordanians have yet to see, according to critics, are genuine steps towards a democratic opening of the Hashemite kingdom and real moves to curb the powers of King Abdullah and the royal court.

"We clearly know that most of the reforms so far are window-dressing," says one western diplomat in Amman. A similar conclusion was drawn by the European Council on Foreign Relations in a recent report: "The country has not yet witnessed any meaningful opening. Although there have been some adjustments to the legislative framework, the king appears to be forestalling any change that would dilute his own absolute powers."

The past few months, in particular, have been laced with disappointment for members of Jordan's reformist camp. They fear that the latest prime ministerial appointment in April will usher in a new era of conservatism, and worry about signs of a renewed crackdown on opposition activists and regime critics. There is also widespread anger over a draft electoral reform law that critics say falls well short of allowing a strong and representative legislature.

Looming behind these concerns is the broader worry that Jordan's regime is under far less pressure to reform today than it was last year. Shocked by the violence and bloodshed in neighbouring Syria, many Jordanians are once again placing greater emphasis on political stability than democratic reform. The same is true of Jordan's two most important allies - Saudi Arabia and the US.

"The west is not putting pressure on Jordan, compared with the first few months after the Arab spring, to reform now. For them, stability comes first," says Rana Sabbagh, a journalist and political analyst based in Amman. Like other observers, she is worried that Jordan could now march in the opposite direction. "They are starting to arrest activists," she says. "We all feel that there will be more repression."

Regime supporters protest that interpretation, arguing that Jordan is taking gradual but concrete steps towards reform. They point out that King Abdullah has insisted on fresh elections before the end of the year and promised to pick a government that will either reflect the composition of the chamber or has its backing. What is more, they take great pride in the fact that Jordan - unlike other Arab countries - has managed to navigate the recent political convulsions without violence and strife.

"We must have done something right - in the past 16 months there has been no shooting and no bloodshed," says Nasser Judeh, the foreign minister.

The disappointment inside the reformist camp, however, is palpable, and has been fuelled by the latest change at the helm of government: Fayez Tarawneh, the prime minister, is a veteran palace official who inspires little confidence among opposition leaders. The new cabinet, too, has disappointed many: it includes only one woman and is otherwise dominated by elderly regime loyalists.

A second setback - at least in the eyes of the opposition - was the publication in April of a draft electoral law. The proposal does little to tackle the traditional over-representation of East Bank Jordanians, who regard themselves as the original inhabitants of the country and form the backbone of Jordan's government and security apparatus.

In contrast, Jordanians of Palestinian origin, who make up half the population, control less than one in six seats in parliament. That would change only marginally under the new regime, which again favours rural districts over urban areas (where most Palestinian Jordanians live).

The cautious approach reflects not least the regime's concern that the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition party by far, will gain too much power. IAF leaders have yet to make a formal decision, but many observers believe the party is now likely to boycott the election altogether - a move that would deal a devastating blow to Jordan's reformist credentials.

Malek Twal, the secretary-general of Jordan's ministry for political development, says the draft law reflects the government's desire for "concrete but gradual improvement to the electoral system". He points to the country's societal divisions as a reason to move slowly: "Whenever a country kicks off a democratisation process, it is important to reassure those are benefiting from the status quo that they won't lose everything."

Meanwhile, one area in which change has undeniably taken place is the public discourse. Analysts point out that neither King Abdullah nor his family are today immune to criticism (even if overt attacks can still land activists in jail). Bloggers and journalists, meanwhile, now feel free to use terms such as "constitutional monarchy" that no one dared to use in public only a few years ago.

"People have the courage now to speak up," says Oraib al-Rantawi, the director of the al-Quds Center for Political Studies in Amman. "They have left behind the culture of fear."

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