Decline in retail sales in the first quarter, "bell" from ESEE

In light of the analysis by the Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Entrepreneurship (ESEE) on the evolution of turnover in retail stores (excluding food, vehicles, and fuel) during the first quarter of 2026.

According to the relevant press release, Hellenic Confederation of Commerce and Entrepreneurship ( ESEE) President Stavros Kafounis stated: “The ESEE Institute’s analysis confirms the ongoing challenges that Greek commerce is called upon to address, and indeed immediately.

For yet another quarter, and without the full impact of the crisis in the Middle East on household income and product prices having been fully reflected, the 0.8% decline in turnover in real terms across all retail businesses (excluding food, vehicles, and fuel) foreshadows an even more difficult period ahead.

The new quarterly decline in turnover at deflated prices has specific characteristics: It is reflected almost exclusively in very small enterprises (-3.1%), which constitute the overwhelming majority of businesses in our country. Small enterprises (-0.2%) show much smaller losses, while medium and large commercial enterprises recorded notable increases in turnover, even after adjusting for inflation (5.2% and 1.4%, respectively).

These findings confirm the vulnerability of micro and small commercial enterprises, which are showing clear signs of strain and a liquidity shortage under the weight of ballooning operating costs and in an environment of compressed purchasing power, excessive tax burdens, and costly digital bureaucracy. Reversing this trend is the responsibility of the State, through a framework of development interventions, financial support, and tax relief, clearly targeted at the needs of the real economy.”  

Turnover Trends in Retail Stores Excluding Food/Vehicles/Fuel

First Quarter 2026

Slight decline (0.8%) in real terms in the sector’s turnover

• In the first quarter of 2026, retail trade turnover excluding food, vehicles, and fuel decreased by 0.8% in real terms compared to the corresponding period in 2025, while it increased by +2.2% in nominal terms
• This development means that the increase in total retail turnover is due exclusively to the rise in the general price level (inflation) and not to the sale of more products.
• The most concerning development, however, lies in the fact that the slowdown/decline in turnover in real terms appears to be becoming entrenched in recent times (Chart 1).

Large firms and SMEs: Significant differences

• In the first quarter of 2026, large enterprises recorded a notable increase in their real sales of 1.4% (+4.4%) (Chart 2).
• In contrast, for all SMEs in the retail sector, turnover, in inflation-adjusted prices, declined by 1.5% (+1.5%).

The structure of turnover within SMEs

• For very small businesses, sales—excluding upward inflationary pressures—declined by 3.1% (-0.2%) compared to the same period last year (Chart 3).
• Small businesses appear to be under less pressure, as, in real terms, the decline in turnover amounted to 0.2% (+2.8%).
• Medium-sized enterprises are in a clearly better position, as their real turnover, in deflated terms, increased by 5.2% (+8.3%). 

Key data on the evolution of turnover in non-food/vehicle/fuel retail trade

• In absolute terms, the nominal increase in turnover for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to €128.8 million, with total turnover for the period reaching €5.88 billion from € 5.76 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
• The very sharp percentage decline (in real terms) in the “Retail sale of second-hand goods in stores” category (-28.1%) in the first quarter of 2026 does not allow for the drawing of reliable conclusions regarding whether or not consumers are shifting toward cheaper and lower-quality products. 
• In the first quarter of 2026, across individual retail categories (excluding food/vehicles/fuel) and in real terms, the largest increases in turnover were observed in the following categories: “Watches and Jewelry” (+8.8%), “Household Electrical Appliances” (+8.0%), “Toys” (+7.2%),  “Telecommunications Equipment” (+7.1%), “Hardware and Paints” (+6.7%), in anticipation of the start of the tourist season.
• In contrast, the categories with the largest actual decline in turnover include: “Secondhand Goods” (-28.1%), “Textiles” (-15.6%), “Furniture and Lighting” (-7.1%), and “Cosmetics and Personal Care Products” (-6.7%). 
• Sales in the “heart of traditional retail”—namely clothing and footwear—were again sluggish in inflation-adjusted terms (Clothing: -1.2% and Footwear: -0.6%). This persistence reflects the lack of disposable income as well as the continuously growing uncertainty due to the military conflict in Iran. 
• The increase in bounced checks continued in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2025. This trend also affects sectors with low profit margins and underscores the liquidity crunch in the market. This situation can only be reversed through the immediate reinstatement of the 120-installment plan for public sector debts and the easing of social security and tax obligations. 
• More broadly, sluggish trade performance will limit the projected rate of economic growth due to the latter’s traditionally very strong dependence on consumption.
• Analysis by region (2025/2024) (excluding food/fuel/vehicles): Turnover (also in real terms) increased mainly in the regions of Attica (+0.3%) and the North Aegean (+0.3%). In contrast, the turnover of retail trade enterprises in the regions of Western Greece (-3.6%) and the Peloponnese (-3.0%) recorded the sharpest decline.