Mr Karamanlis: Disproportionate cost of the "calm waters" policy

"Illegal or formally legitimate surveillance also harms democracy... Citizens' certainty that institutions, primarily the judiciary, are being manipulated... Those in power insist on discounts to democratic values."

Mr Karamanlis: Disproportionate cost of the calm waters policy

This article is an AI translation of an original piece published in Greek. Read original

Former Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis expressed his opposition to the policy of “calm waters” in Greek-Turkish relations while speaking at the book launch for K. Arvanitopoulos and K. Filis’s book *The New World Order. The Law of Power," at the Megaron Concert Hall.

“The law Turkey is drafting, according to recent leaks, is outrageous. The unthinkable ‘Blue Homeland Doctrine,’ which many believe is intended for domestic consumption—since it is now taught in schools and indoctrinates, misleads, and radicalizes the younger generations— is now taking on the most official form and becoming state law, in order to bind all future governments. To bind the state itself. Of course, it has no legal value for enforcing fait accomplis, but it leaves no doubt whatsoever regarding Turkey’s unacceptable claims to half the Aegean and binds the Turkish state to enforce this law on the ground. “And in any case, it constitutes indisputable proof that Turkey is methodically and systematically advancing its revisionist agenda and attempting to gradually engineer conditions favorable to itself,” the former prime minister emphasized.

Given these facts, Mr. Karamanlis noted, “we must question the effectiveness of the ‘calm waters’ policy.” For, however understandable the effort to avoid tensions may be, as long as this behavior is misinterpreted as a concession in the exercise of even the slightest of our rights, even in the heart of the Aegean, or absolves Turkey of the burden of its aggressive behavior in the eyes of third parties—hypocritically, of course, because it suits them— the cost becomes disproportionately greater than the supposed benefit sought. It is right, then, to strengthen the country’s defensive and deterrent capabilities, but I believe the time has come to demonstrate to partners and allies—even through a sustained campaign of public diplomacy and in a persistent and clear manner— the unthinkable nature of Turkey’s ambitions and the extent of its expansionism and aggression. And to Turkey, the message must be clear and unequivocal: no one in Greece is willing to make concessions on issues of the country’s internationally recognized rights and entitlements.”

“Read the developments correctly”

In the new global reality, noted Kostas Karamanlis, “Greece must correctly interpret developments and chart a course that will maximize its benefits, place it in an advantageous position on the geopolitical map, and protect it from the ambitions of others… Of course, Greece is aligned with the West, but the West itself is now changing or even splitting, and part of it is engaging in dialogue with Russia and China. It’s not just the U.S. Recently, voices have been heard even within the EU urging dialogue with Russia. Of course, Greece is against violence and revisionism, but this principle must be applied universally. We cannot throw all our strength behind the defender while the rest of Europe—and, mind you, even that defender—fails to stand by our side when we are threatened! It must therefore be understood that Greece and Cyprus are guarding Europe’s southeastern borders against real and existential dangers that threaten the territorial integrity of the EU. Indeed, aside from Turkish expansionism, it has recently become clear that the Greece-Cyprus axis serves as the EU’s bulwark on its southeastern border against threats originating from beyond the Eastern Mediterranean.”

The former prime minister sharply criticized the EU, which he accused—among other things—of “glaring contradictions on the issue of common security and defense. At a time when Turkey has revisionist goals toward a member state, Greece, constantly threatens us with war, and frequently resorts to violence to support its ambitions, Ankara is considered a valuable partner and ally by most other member states. Especially regarding Cyprus, another EU member state, there is a glaring contradiction in the stance of most allies and partners. That is, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine is condemned, sanctions are imposed, and the defender is supported in every way, the corresponding suffering of Cyprus, which has been ongoing for nearly half a century, is not addressed. Worse still, efforts are being made to find solutions that place the aggressor and the victim on an equal footing or that legitimize the illegal occupation and place Cyprus in a state of hostage to Turkey, in complete contradiction to the European acquis. This inconsistency seriously exposes those who claim to be fighting for values and principles and raises the suspicion that support for Ukraine is not dictated by principles but by geopolitical ambitions. In fact, it undermines the political, legal, and moral superiority of the Western narrative.”

“Democracy is under attack”

Beyond geopolitics, Mr. Karamanlis also referred to “compromises on democratic values that destabilize social cohesion and the value system of the postwar West. The role of the media and the issue of accurate and impartial information are of crucial importance. When information serves vested interests or becomes an overt attempt at manipulation, democracy is undermined. Illegal or ostensibly legitimate surveillance also undermines democracy. Perhaps the greatest blow is the growing certainty among the vast majority of citizens that institutions—and above all the judiciary, as the foundation of a free and democratic society—are being manipulated. All of this undermines the narrative of Western superiority. However, instead of a concerted effort to curb their negative consequences, we often see those in power clinging to these compromises. They readily resort to attempts to belittle and slander those who dare to challenge their own narrative. Often, in fact, through guided but anonymous online trolls. How, then, can one be surprised by the explosive rise of anti-establishment trends?”

The former prime minister emphasized that “the international scene is far more unstable than at any other time since World War II. We have entered a phase of growing uncertainty. In this context, the international system is reverting to a realpolitik of spheres of influence and brute force as a means of resolving international disputes, with complete disregard for the rule of law and international treaties and organizations.”

He also pointed out that “the fact that ever more wealth is accumulating in the hands of fewer people and the gap between the haves and the have-nots is constantly widening is alarming in terms of social cohesion, political stability, and the quality of Western democracies. What makes social inequalities, however, a major and pressing global challenge of our time is the prospect that, due to economic developments and technological discoveries, they are likely to escalate dramatically.

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