The crisis in the Middle East is putting significant pressure on the European aviation industry, with the main factors being higher fuel costs, route diversions, and airspace restrictions.
According to an analysis byAlpha Bank Economic Research, the sector is facing its most severe disruptions since the pandemic, at a time when demand for air travel is rising due to the summer tourist season.
The analysis notes that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-quarter of the global supply of oil and jet fuel passes, has led to a sharp increase in fuel prices. On March 27, 2026, jet fuel prices reached $4.40 per gallon, up from $2.40 a month earlier.
The impact on airlines is immediate, as fuel accounts for approximately 20%–30% of their operating costs. At the same time, approximately 1,100 flights per day were rerouted due to the airspace closure, resulting in an additional consumption of about 600 tons of fuel per day.
Although fuel prices have now fallen, they remain nearly double the levels seen before the conflict. This is forcing airlines to reevaluate schedules, capacity, and pricing policies, with low-margin carriers and those with increased fuel dependence in the region considered more vulnerable.
Pressure on ticket prices
The rise in operating costs is gradually being passed on to airfare prices. According to the analysis, a two-month conflict in the Middle East could lead to 5%-10% increases in airfares, with the final magnitude of the impact depending on the duration and intensity of the crisis.
This development could widen competitiveness gaps among airlines. Those with strong liquidity and diversified fuel supply sources are better positioned to absorb the costs, while weaker players may face disproportionate pressure.
The situation in Europe and Greece
The crisis coincides with a period of increased demand for air travel in Europe. Based on data provided by Alpha Bank for the period from January 1 to May 10, 2026, a decrease in flights was recorded in Germany (-2%), France (-1%), and the Netherlands (-4%), while there was no change in the United Kingdom.
In contrast, Greece shows a 7% increase in the number of flights, a performance that places it among the countries with the largest increases, alongside Poland, Ireland, and Denmark. In other major Mediterranean markets, growth rates were lower, at 4% in Italy and 3% in Spain and Portugal.
The impact, however, is not limited to costs. Rescheduling, cancellations, and capacity restrictions can affect arrivals from distant markets, particularly from Asia, as well as international transit flows through Gulf hubs.
According to Alpha Bank, the ultimate impact on passenger numbers, ticket prices, and tourism revenues in European economies will depend on how long the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East last and how intense they become.