In 2025, Greece recorded the largest decline in the consumption of illicit cigarettes among the 27 member states of the European Union, confirming the significant progress made in recent years in combating illicit trade.
At the same time, in the EU, the consumption of illicit cigarettes exceeded 10% of total consumption for the first time since 2014, according to the findings of the annual KPMG Report, conducted on behalf of Philip Morris International.
Specifically, according to the Report’s findings, in Greece by 2025:
- The share of illicit cigarettes is estimated at 14.1% of total cigarette consumption, down by 3.4 percentage points compared to 2024.
- In total, 1.9 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed.
- The lost revenue for public coffers is estimated at €330 million for 2025, while in 2024 it amounted to €438 million.
- For the second consecutive year, Greece has achieved the largest percentage decrease in illicit cigarette consumption among the EU-27.
Meanwhile, according to the report’s findings, at the European Union level in 2025:
- 41.8 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed (+7.2% compared to 2024), a figure corresponding to 10.3% of total consumption, while revenue losses for the public treasury are estimated at 16.7 billion euros (+1.8 billion euros compared to 2024).
The following countries lead in illegal cigarette trade:
- France, which retains the top spot in illicit cigarette consumption for yet another year, where the country’s total illicit cigarette consumption reached 41.4%, showing the largest increase compared to all other countries relative to 2024.
- Belgium, where illicit cigarette consumption reached nearly a quarter (24.8%) of total consumption, with more than 2 billion illicit cigarettes.
- The Netherlands, where illicit cigarette consumption exceeded 22%, reaching 2.1 billion illicit cigarettes and returning to levels not seen since 2006.
For the second consecutive year, KPMG’s annual Report also assessed the illicit consumption of heated tobacco products in selected European markets. The phenomenon remains limited for now, as the illicit trade accounted for 1.2% of total consumption of heated tobacco products, a percentage significantly lower than that of conventional cigarettes.
However, to maintain this, we must learn from the recent past and avoid repeating the same tax mistakes in this category of new, innovative, and improved products, the relevant announcement notes.
Iakovos Kargarotos, Vice President of Papastratos, commented: “This year’s results from the KPMG Report confirm that Greece is the best real-world example of combating the smuggling of illegal cigarettes. Our country has recorded the largest decline in the EU-27 for the second consecutive year, a fact that is no coincidence. It is the result of a stable, realistic, and long-term tax framework, combined with the intensified efforts of law enforcement agencies.
Tax stability and cooperation between the government and the private sector can yield measurable and meaningful results. This, however, leaves no room for complacency. Illegal trade remains a constant threat to public revenue, the sustainability of the industry and retail sector, and public health, and requires vigilance, cooperation, and determination—and, above all, that the mistakes of the past not be repeated
. Particularly at a time when the revision of the European Tobacco Products Directive is under discussion, the report’s findings serve as a reminder that the policies adopted must be evidence-based, realistic, and practicable. “Broad-brush or excessive interventions that do not take into account actual market conditions lead to the opposite result, fueling the illicit trade and illegal organized networks.”
Christos Harpantidis, Group Chief Corporate Affairs Officer at Philip Morris International, referring to the report’s findings, emphasized: “The data is clear: counterfeit products have become the primary driving force behind the illicit cigarette market in the EU, supported by criminal supply chains designed to bring counterfeit products to consumers in high-value markets, undermining the European economy and fueling broader illicit activity.
This development also highlights persistent structural weaknesses in regulation, law enforcement, and the effective judicial follow-up of cases, which create space for the growth of illicit trade, at a time when many EU Member States are under broader security and economic pressure, ranging from inflation and competitiveness challenges to growing budgetary needs for security and defense due to geopolitical fragmentation.
Addressing these gaps in Europe requires coordinated action: stronger law enforcement, public-private sector collaboration, and a focus on regulations that are balanced, data-driven, and practical.”