The Retail Trade Business Expectations Index recorded a marginal decline in May, standing at 104.5 points, down from 105.6 points in April, according to the latest “Economic Climate Survey” by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE).
Among the index’s individual components, positive assessments of the current business situation weakened slightly, while forecasts for sales growth in the coming quarter remained unchanged.
In detail, businesses’ mildly positive assessments of current sales have declined to +17 points (from +20), while positive forecasts for sales trends in the coming quarter remain unchanged at +39 points.
New orders have fallen sharply to +16 points from +31 points in the previous period, with inventories remaining at +22 points.
On the other hand, optimistic employment forecasts strengthen further to +35 (from +18) points, while regarding prices, 47% expect an increase, indicative of inflationary pressures.
As for the degree of uncertainty prevailing in the economic environment, it stands at marginally higher levels compared to the previous month, as 69.5% believe that future growth is difficult or relatively difficult to predict, up from 68.5% in April.
In the main sectors surveyed, expectations are mixed.
Retail Business Expectations Index
In more detail:
The Business Expectations Index for food, beverages, and tobacco fell sharply in May to 110.5 points (from 117.3), significantly higher than last year’s level (85.2 points). Positive assessments of current sales weakened significantly to +46 (from +70) points, while, conversely, optimistic expectations for sales in the coming period remained at +48 points.
Inventories remain at normal levels for the season, while orders placed with suppliers are improving slightly (+43 from +35 points on the relevant balance). The positive balance of employment forecasts is rising sharply to +65 points, while inflationary price trends are at slightly lower levels compared to the previous month at +54 points.
The business expectations index for textiles, clothing, and footwear is rising sharply, standing at 98.9 (up from 65.7) points, significantly lower than the corresponding level last year (116.5 points). Negative assessments of current sales have eased sharply (-21 from -38 points), while at the same time, mildly positive forecasts for the coming period have strengthened significantly to +63 points, up from +18 points in the previous period.
Inventory levels have weakened to +34 points (from +76), while orders placed with suppliers have improved significantly to -13 points (from -31 points in the previous period). On the other hand, employment forecasts remain high at +62 points, while the price balance stands at mildly inflationary levels of +23 points.
Expectations for household equipment have fallen sharply, with the relevant index standing at 90.1 points in May (down from 101.4), slightly higher than the same period last year (87 points). Negative assessments of current sales are easing and turning positive at +3 points, up from -6 points in the previous period, while forecasts for sales in the coming period are moving in the opposite direction, standing at +13 points compared to +30 points in April.
On the other hand, inventory levels have risen significantly, with orders to suppliers strengthening to +57 (from +20) points. At the same time, employment forecasts have improved significantly, standing at +22 points (up from +11 points in the previous reading), while the price index continues to indicate an increase (+45 points).
Business expectations in the vehicles and parts sector are on the rise, at 118.5 points from 111.9 points the previous month, at slightly higher levels compared to the corresponding period in 2025 (107.7 points). Current sales in the sector are improving significantly, rising from -17 points in April to +12 points, while forecasts for sales in the coming period remain strongly positive at +53 points.
Inventories have declined marginally (+25 from +27 points), with orders to suppliers falling sharply to +9 (from +52) points. On the other hand, employment forecasts remain virtually unchanged at +9 points (from +8 points), while finally, regarding prices, the relevant balance stands at strongly inflationary levels, at +35 points.
Business expectations in department stores are falling sharply, with the index standing at 96.8 points, down from 109.0 points the previous month. Strongly positive assessments of current sales have plummeted to +45 (from +91) points, while, conversely, forecasts for sales in the coming period have improved slightly, standing at +3 (from -7) points.
Inventories remain at normal seasonal levels (+7 points on the relevant balance), while at the same time, the strongly positive forecasts for orders to suppliers have marginally strengthened to +35 (from +33) points. Employment forecasts have plummeted to -77 points from -2 points last month, while the corresponding index for prices remains at strongly inflationary levels, at +98 points.
Retail Business Expectations Index
