The new dynamics emerging on the country’s political scene are reflected in the nationwide poll conducted by Metron Analysis for Mega, as the emergence of two new political formations — the Greek Left Alliance (ELAS) led by Alexis Tsipras and “Hope for Democracy” led by Maria Karystianou — is causing significant shifts and changes in the political balance.
Nevertheless, New Democracy does not appear to be under threat. However, a majority government seems like a distant possibility given the data presented by the poll. In terms of voting intention, New Democracy leads with 22.7%, followed by EL.A.S. with 12.1% and PASOK with 9%.
“Hope for Democracy” is making an impressive debut with 8.3%, while SYRIZA has shrunk to 1.8%. The undecided vote remains at extremely high levels, reaching 13.1%.
New Democracy steady, PASOK down, Tsipras in second place
In the poll, New Democracy remains stable compared to April at 28.5%. In second place is Tsipras’s party with 15.2%, while PASOK is third with 11.2%. Maria Karistainou’s party is in fourth place with 10.4%. The Freedom Course, Greek Solution, KKE, MeRA 25, and Voice of Reason would enter Parliament, while SYRIZA would remain outside.
Compared to April, significant losses are seen for the Greek Solution (4.2%), PASOK (3.8%), the Freedom Course (3.6%), SYRIZA (3%), and the KKE (2.6%).
The nine-party Parliament and the seat projection
If these poll results were confirmed at the ballot box with these percentages, then forming a coalition government would be an extremely difficult equation. According to the above percentages, New Democracy would win 113 seats, ELAS 46, PASOK 34, “Hope for Democracy” 31, Freedom Course 21, and Greek Solution 18, the same number as the KKE. The Voice of Reason, with 10 seats, and MeRA25, with 9, would round out the Parliament.
Mitsotakis is the most suitable candidate; no one is his main rival
In the suitability index for the premiership, Kyriakos Mitsotakis maintains his lead, garnering 28% of the vote and showing stability throughout the first five months of 2026.
Alexis Tsipras is in second place with 14%. Next are Nikos Androulakis and Maria Karistianou with 6%. Notably, the “None” option remains at 27% once again.
Where do Tsipras and Karistianou draw their votes from?
An analysis of the voter base for the two new parties reveals the different political reservoirs from which they draw their votes. Alexis Tsipras’ ELAS serves as the primary recipient of the traditional base of SYRIZA in 2023, drawing 50.5% of its support from this pool.
At the same time, it shows significant penetration into other parties of the broader Left and Center-Left, as it draws 8.6% from voters who said they would vote for SYRIZA in April, 5.2% from Freedom Course, 4.6% from MERA25, and 3.7% from PASOK. ELAS appears to be achieving a realignment of forces on the left.
On the other hand, Maria Karistianou’s “Hope for Democracy” appears to cut across the political spectrum. 22% of its voters come from the New Democracy of 2023.
Furthermore, it draws 10% of its support from SYRIZA, 9% from the Greek Solution, and 7% from NIKI, figures that highlight a clear anti-establishment dimension. The picture is rounded out by 5% from PASOK, while a significant 20% comes from blank, invalid, or abstention votes.