Mediobanca has raised its price target for GEK TERNA shares to €53, maintaining its “Outperform” rating . According to the Italian bank, the target price upgrade reflects the ongoing transformation of the GEK TERNA Group, which is characterized by increased cash flow predictability and stronger profit margins.
GEK TERNA’s medium-term growth is driven by the increasing contribution of the concessions portfolio (particularly motorways), the improved operational performance of the construction segment, and the expanded project pipeline in Greece and Southeast Europe.
Financial results for the first quarter of 2026 exceeded forecasts, with operating profitability (EBITDA) of €166 million (+22% year-over-year) and net profit of €35 million (+66% year-over-year), thanks mainly to the significant contribution of the motorway sector and improved profitability in construction.
The motorways segment recorded a revenue increase of approximately 38%, with a strong contribution from Egnatia Odos, leading to an improvement in the quality mix of revenues (recurring/regulated). At the same time, the construction sector demonstrates a significant operating profit margin, confirming the Group’s strategic shift toward high-yield projects.
For the 2026–2028 period, Mediobanca estimates EBITDA at between €700–816 million, while net profits are expected to reach up to €192 million, as the concession portfolio gradually matures and profit margins stabilize. GEK TERNA’s growth prospects are further strengthened by an expanded pipeline of new infrastructure projects (road projects, PPPs, etc.), as well as strategic investments in new, growing sectors.
These include water management, with GEK TERNA having acquired a 13% stake in EYDAP, securing access to a sector where investments of €8–10 billion are expected. As well as energy storage, where the Group participates in projects with regulated returns, such as the Amfilochia pumped-storage facility.
According to Mediobanca, GEK TERNA’s financial profile is robust, with approximately 95% of its debt directly linked to specific projects (project finance, non-recourse), drastically limiting risk at the parent company level.
In conclusion, the investment-grade rating (BBB-/Baa3) and strong liquidity reinforce the credibility of GEK TERNA’s investment narrative.
The expected further increase in the contribution from concessions is estimated to lead to structurally higher profit margins and stable cash flows in the coming years.