The current digital age began more than 50 years ago, and all signs point to its pace accelerating. From the massive computers of the 1960s, we moved on to personal computers in the 1980s, to mobile phones in the 1990s, and now we are talking about nanotechnology and Artificial Intelligence.
These rapid developments have now brought us face to face with a new challenge: that of the quantum future. That is, there is the challenge of a critical technology that can alter our perception of space and time and overturn assumptions in fields such as biology, medicine, physics, and engineering.
Once confined to the realm of abstract theory, quantum computing seeks to use functions based on quantum mechanics to solve computational problems previously considered unsolvable. Although the technology is still in its infancy, it is already clear that quantum computing could have profound implications for national security and the global economy in the coming decades.
Since the late 2010s, the U.S. and many other advanced nations have become increasingly engaged in the race for leadership in quantum information science and technology, a field that encompasses quantum computing, quantum communications, and quantum sensing.
Over the past decade, governments in 20 countries have announced investments in quantum development totaling more than $60 billion worldwide. China alone has committed to spending $20.3 billion over a five-year period. Beijing has thus designated the development of quantum technologies as a national priority and has established advanced production hubs.
For its part, in 2018, the United States enacted the National Quantum Initiative, legislation aimed at maintaining the country’s technological and scientific leadership in quantum information and its applications.
The U.S. government has announced $10 billion in unclassified funding, as well as additional funding for defense research and development. In addition to government-led initiatives, multiple research and development efforts are underway in the private sector and academia.
Although these investments are still overshadowed by U.S. and international funding for Artificial Intelligence, the rise of quantum technology has already begun to shape international policy.
In 2019, the U.S. announced a bilateral “declaration on quantum cooperation” with Japan, which the U.S. government reinforced in 2023. And in 2024, Washington launched a multilateral initiative called the Quantum Development Group to coordinate strategies for promoting and managing the new technology.
As Charina Chou, director at Google Quantum AI, argues, “...the rise of quantum technology brings with it major national security issues.”
As three senior Google executives argued in an earlier article in the journal “Foreign Affairs,” “...since the 1990s, researchers have recognized that one of the greatest threats posed by a powerful quantum computer is its potential as a decryption tool, capable of breaking the encryption used by the most advanced communications systems and digital networks around the world today.
This concern has prompted the U.S. government to develop and support the adoption of quantum-resistant cryptography, strengthen export controls on quantum technology and related products, and build action-oriented partnerships with industry, academia, and local governments.”
However, the emphasis on code-breaking has led policymakers to overlook other important applications of quantum technology. In fact, before quantum machines can break advanced encryption systems—a capability that will require enormous computing power even after the technology is developed — they could have a transformative impact on many sectors of the economy, including energy and pharmaceuticals.
If harnessed effectively, quantum technologies could drive innovation, scientific discovery, economic growth, and opportunities for new products and services. On a purely human level, some of the discoveries that could result from quantum machines rival those currently predicted to come from Artificial Intelligence.
For this reason, it is particularly important that the technology be developed in open societies, with clear safeguards to ensure it is used for benevolent purposes.
Victory in the quantum race will not be easy. China has already taken a leading role in certain areas, such as quantum communications, and in the coming years, targeted American innovation and leadership will be critical to maintaining U.S. competitiveness.
The United States and its international partners will need to allocate far more resources to implement their quantum projects and will need to develop quantum industries and a robust quantum supply chain to support these projects.
If the U.S. and its allies fail to make these efforts a central strategic goal and a priority in policymaking, they could lose diplomatic influence, military power, and the ability to maintain oversight over a powerful new technology. They could also miss the opportunity to chart a new course for economic and social progress.
We are talking about progress that could be of incredible magnitude. However, this is a double-edged sword. Because the misuse or even abuse of quantum computing would cause an immense shock to the global order, with consequences that are not always predictable.