A series of recent reports in Western media have fostered the impression that Ukraine has gained the upper hand. This perception is based primarily on the increase in Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure and supply chains, on the grim forecasts for the Russian economy, and on the relatively limited territorial gains made by the aggressor in recent months.
Behind this celebration, however, lies a much more unpleasant reality. The pace of the Russian advance may have slowed, but it continues slowly yet steadily, particularly against very difficult targets such as fortified cities.
The destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure is immense, while—perhaps most importantly—a deep crisis has now emerged in the defending side’s manpower. The strategic trajectory of the war has not changed in the slightest!
Ukraine’s former Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba—a figure particularly beloved by Western politicians and, until September 2024, a close associate of Zelenskyy—was revealing about the true state of affairs, stating:
“All this talk about a ‘turning point’ in the war—that Ukraine has supposedly turned the tide and will now reach the Kremlin—is nonsense. I don’t want to be tedious, but in November we’ll be back to the narrative of how we’ll survive the winter.”
The Front and the Crisis in the Infantry
Significant events have already taken place, without coverage from Western media. Russia has taken full control of Pokrovsk after fierce fighting, while it is reported to have already captured a significant portion of Konstantinovka, (perhaps more than 55%), one of the medium-sized and large cities remaining in the Donetsk “stronghold,” centered on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Perhaps even more significant are the changes in conscription policies recently announced by Ukraine, which have drastically increased pay for conscripts, particularly those fighting on the front lines.
At the same time, it was officially announced that the government’s goal is to fill 30% to 50% of positions in assault and infantry units with foreign “volunteers.”
As Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, put it: “We are opening the market for recruiting foreigners, with the aim of strengthening combat units and saving the lives of Ukrainian soldiers.”
Shockingly high wages by Ukrainian standards
The minimum wage in Ukraine currently ranges from 165 to 190 euros per month, while the average wage is estimated by Ukrainian sources at 580 to 650 euros, based on the exchange rate of the Ukrainian currency. Against this backdrop, the new pay rates for soldiers are surprising.
For uniformed personnel serving in the rear, without participating in combat missions at the front, pay is set at approximately 580 euros per month, always in local currency, an amount that is supplemented by allowances.
For infantry taking part in combat missions, the monthly pay averages… 5,780 euros, an amount that, depending on the number of combat missions, can reach as high as 8,900 euros per month.
This is happening at the same time that over 1.1 million adult Ukrainian men are in other European countries, where they are considered beneficiaries of temporary protection as refugees and are supported, directly or indirectly, by national and European funds.
The “volunteers” and the legal fig leaf
The plan is now clear. Lacking the will to conscript younger age groups or to effectively press for the return of deserters from Europe, Ukraine, with Europe’s full support, aims to replace a large portion of Ukrainian fighters with foreigners, whom it characterizes as “volunteers,” as is customary.
By now offering higher pay to local soldiers as well, it will attempt to hide behind the loopholes in the definition of mercenaries under international law. The argument will be simple: since foreigners receive the same pay as Ukrainians in equivalent positions and are integrated into the regular army, they should not be considered mercenaries.
This, however, is a rather flimsy legal fig leaf. Most of the new “volunteers” in Ukraine in recent years, especially since 2024, appear to come from poorer countries, primarily in Latin America. Mainly from Colombia, but also from Venezuela, Chile, Argentina, and Brazil.
The bill goes to Europe
The financier is, of course, Europe and the European Union, as they decisively support both the Ukrainian economy and its defense spending with staggering amounts, especially since the U.S. decided to drastically limit its involvement.
According to data available from the Kiel Institute, approximately €182 billion has already been disbursed by the EU and approximately €215 billion by Europe as a whole, if non-EU countries such as the United Kingdom and Norway are included.
In addition, another €90 billion is set to be paid by the EU through the infamous loan supposedly to be repaid by the… Russians, as well as approximately another €40 billion that is being discussed for disbursement through bilateral agreements between NATO member states—excluding the U.S.—and Ukraine.
The projected total from Europe thus exceeds €345 billion, not including funds for beneficiaries of temporary protection from Ukraine.
In short, European funding for Ukraine is approaching, in scale, the EU’s largest financial programs for its member states.
It is now even comparable to the RRF, the largest support program for member states in the history of the Union, provided that the portion of loans that must be repaid by the recipients is excluded.
The hard truth for leaders
This massive sum of money, as well as the shift in how fighters are being paid to ensure Ukraine is not defeated, now clearly shows exactly what is happening.
A large portion of Ukrainians, exhausted by the fierce resistance and the painful losses of more than four years of brutal war, are unable to continue at the same pace.
The goal now is to replace as many of them as possible —30% to 50%, according to the plan for assault and infantry positions—with generously paid “volunteers,” who will effectively be paid by the citizens of Europe, primarily the European Union, risking their lives in a game of chance.
The truth is that such tactics rarely work. It will be very difficult to find so many people willing to risk their lives in an extremely brutal war. Moreover, it is difficult to replace the bravery of the Ukrainians, who have often fought with utter self-sacrifice, even following orders that are nearly suicidal.
What is unfolding, however, reveals the desperation of a European leadership willing to sacrifice anyone else—first the Ukrainians, now the foreign “volunteers”—— as well as resources precious to its own citizens, in an attempt to prevent a Russian victory, even a partial one, which, however, has long seemed increasingly difficult to avert.