Eurobank Equities has raised its price target for GEK Terna to 52 euros per share from 34.80 euros previously, maintaining its “Buy” recommendation and reiterating that the stock is one of its top investment picks in the Greek market.
In its report titled “Taking the High Road to Long-Term Value,” the brokerage firm describes GEK Terna as the leading infrastructure group in Greece, with a dominant position in concessions and construction, as well as a proven ability to execute complex, large-scale projects.
According to analysts, the integration of Attiki Odos and Egnatia Odos marks a turning point for the group, as the value of the concessions is now shifting from the development phase to the exploitation phase, through higher profits, increased dividend inflows, and greater balance sheet flexibility.
Eurobank Equities is revising its adjusted EBITDA estimates upward by 5%–11% for the 2026–2028 period and forecasts an increase in operating profitability of approximately 21% in 2026. The first full-year contribution from Egnatia Odos, the further maturation of Attiki Odos, and the resilience of the construction division are expected to play a catalytic role.
Concessions, which account for approximately 75% of the group’s continuing EBITDA, remain the key driver of growth. GEK Terna manages approximately 2,000 kilometers of highways, with an infrastructure portfolio featuring long-term lifespans, flexible pricing, and built-in mechanisms for adjusting tolls based on inflation.
Special mention is made of the Egnatia Highway, where the brokerage firm estimates that there is significant potential for further value creation. The base-case scenario forecasts a gradual convergence of traffic volumes with those of other Greek highways by 2042, while a faster normalization could add approximately 3 euros per share to the company’s value.
At the same time, the construction sector continues to strengthen the group’s integrated business model, with a backlog of projects totaling 8.8 billion euros at the end of the first quarter of 2026, providing strong visibility for the coming years.
Eurobank Equities also estimates that the group is entering a period of stronger cash flow generation, having left the peak of its investment phase behind. Increasing cash flows from concessions are expected to finance the remaining investment obligations for projects such as the BOAK, environmental projects, the IRC at Elliniko, and the pumped-storage hydroelectric plant in Amfilochia, while also helping to reduce debt.
Analysts predict that the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio will decline from approximately 7 times in 2025 to approximately 4 times by 2030. They also point out that the financial picture is significantly stronger than what superficial leverage ratios indicate, as more than 90% of net debt relates to project financing that is not recourse to the parent company, and 94% of the debt is fixed-rate or hedged.
Improved cash flows are expected to support higher returns to shareholders, with the dividend per share projected to rise from 0.40 euros in 2025 to approximately 0.82 euros by 2030.
The new target price of 52 euros reflects lower risk premiums, upgraded operating assumptions, and a roll-forward of the valuation model. Despite the stock’s rise of more than 80% since the beginning of the year, Eurobank Equities believes there is still significant room for revaluation, as GEK Terna continues to trade at a discount relative to high-quality international infrastructure groups.
Furthermore, it is emphasized that the company’s value could be further enhanced by faster traffic growth on the Egnatia Highway or by the undertaking of new concession projects, which are estimated to generate significant additional value for shareholders.