S&P has announced that it has upgraded PPC’s long-term issuer and debt credit ratings to “BB” from “BB-,” following the company’s large capital increase and investment plan.
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the company will successfully implement its growth plan while maintaining its sustainable (FFO to debt) at a sustainable level above 15% during the 2026–2028 period. We also expect the company to have fully phased out lignite-fired power generation by the end of 2026, it adds.
PPC’s updated strategic plan for the period 2026–2030 reflects a significant increase in growth ambitions compared to the 2026–2028 plan announced in November 2025.
The company has increased its planned capital expenditures (capex) to approximately 24 billion euros for the 2026–2030 period, up from the approximately 10 billion euros originally planned for the 2026–2028 period, driven by rising demand for electricity, the phasing out of fossil-fuel-fired power plants, and improved macroeconomic prospects in the Southeast Europe (SEE) region.
The company will now invest approximately 5 billion euros annually, primarily in renewable energy sources, data centers, and grids in Southeast Europe, compared to approximately 3.5 billion euros annually under the previous plan.
PPC aims to nearly double its installed generation capacity compared to 2025, reaching 24.3 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, through investments in renewable energy sources, storage, flexible generation, data centers, and expansion into new markets (PPC will enter Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia).
Renewable energy sources will account for approximately 53% of capital expenditures, while investments in distribution networks will account for about 19% of capital expenditures, offsetting the decline in the contribution of regulated activities to profits. The company states that it is on track to fully phase out lignite-fired generation by the end of 2026.
We believe that the larger scale of operations and the more diversified geographic presence could, over time, strengthen the company’s business risk profile, the firm continues.
Our rating for the company continues to benefit from a one-notch uplift, reflecting the moderate likelihood of extraordinary state support from the Greek government, which holds a 33.4% stake in the company.
As part of a €4.25 billion capital increase, PPC secured €1.3 billion from the Greek government, which maintained its stake at 33.4%. We expect PPC to continue to have a moderate likelihood of receiving emergency support from the Greek government.
We note that the existing minority shareholder, CVC, also contributed €1.2 billion in capital, increasing its stake in PPC from 10.3% today to 17.2%. We understand that CVC’s capital contribution to PPC takes the form of pure equity.
We forecast that PPC will report adjusted EBITDA of approximately €2.4 billion–€2.5 billion in 2026 and €2.5 billion–€2.7 billion in 2027.
We could downgrade the rating if the implementation of the growth strategy is significantly delayed or if the FFO-to-debt ratio falls below 15%, the report continues. A one-notch downgrade of Greece to “BBB-” would not affect our rating for PPC.