Gallium’s share of Metlen’s business is growing rapidly, with its price reaching new all-time highs, which is also impacting its contribution to the medium-term target of €2 billion in consolidated EBITDA by 2028.The surge in the price of gallium, which in recent days has come within a hair’s breadth of $3,000 per kilogram ($2,925), has resulted in a significant upgrade for this sector, meaning it will now contribute to the group’s EBITDA not 40 million per year, as initially estimated, but close to 200 million euros annually.
The market is constantly growing; China’s new restrictions are making the metal increasingly scarce; and industry experts emphasize that “in a few years from now, we’ll look back on the price of $3,000 per kilogram as a distant dream.”
In Metlen’s case, initial production at the Aluminiom facility in Agios Nikolaos, Boeotia, is expected in 2027, with an increase to 50 metric tons per year by 2028, and all signs indicate that the company anticipates even higher prices, which in turn means that any sales agreements are being postponed for the future.
Although the group is in talks to sign contracts with companies from Europe, Japan, and Korea—and especially with the U.S. market—it will most likely wait, as the selling price of gallium could be several times higher in a few months’ time.
Behind these new record highs are China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals, which are heightening concerns about the global supply of this metal—a critical raw material for the production of advanced semiconductors, telecommunications systems, photovoltaic applications, and defense technologies.
The market reaction followed Beijing’s decision to impose even stricter controls, effective June 15, on 36 strategic minerals and energy raw materials, including gallium and other rare earth elements. By strengthening the regulatory framework governing the country’s critical resources, the new regulations reaffirm China’s intention to maintain its dominant role in the global supply chain.
Although delivery prices to the U.S. (DDP) reached between $2,300 and $2,500 per kilogram yesterday, the transaction that caught the market’s attention took place last Friday at a price of $2,925 per kilogram and involved the supply of gallium to the electronics and semiconductor industry in Japan.
At the same time, Fastmarkets, a provider of metal price and market data, took a step seen as directly linked to Washington’s strategy to reduce its dependence on China for metals used in microchips, data centers, AI systems, and telecommunications equipment.
Fastmarkets has begun publishing new price indices for gallium, bismuth, and indium in the U.S. At a time when the value of gallium is increasingly influenced by geopolitical factors and national security concerns, the new DDP US indices reflect the actual cost of supply for American buyers, including tariffs, freight, insurance costs, and other charges associated with importing these metals.