Despite international uncertainty, KEPE’s Composite Leading Index is sending a positive signal for the Greek economy, reaching its highest level in the last 26 years. However, there is no cause for complacency.
The index fluctuated from November 2025 to March 2026, indicating that the economy is experiencing volatility. Nevertheless, the overall trend remains upward and offers early signs of improvement for the coming months, notes KEPE.
Analysis of the Index shows that the market sees better prospects, despite inflationary pressures and, above all, the geopolitical risks that continue to weigh on the international environment.
Risks
KEPE itself notes that, amid the current international uncertainty, a reassessment is needed, incorporating the latest data. These will show whether the upward trend will hold or whether external risks will once again slow down the Greek economy. In other words, the index does not signal complacency. However, it does send a clear message that, despite external pressures, the Greek economy continues to show resilience and prospects for improvement.
Signal
The Composite Leading Index (CLI) of the Center for Economic Research (KEPE) does not measure what has already happened in the economy. It attempts to capture shifts in the business cycle earlier, before they become clearly visible in the key indicators of economic activity.
It is compiled using a dynamic factor model and is based on six monthly economic variables that exhibit leading characteristics. Simply put, it is a tool that attempts to indicate which direction the economy is heading before this is confirmed by the more substantial and lagging statistical data.