Today’s session on the Athens Stock Exchange was marked by relatively low net trading value and limited interest, with the General Index fluctuating and buyers focusing their efforts on a small number of stocks.
As for the other features of today’s session, pressure was seen on Viohalco Group stocks, and the broader market continued to show a lackluster performance.
Most domestic professionals remain cautious, estimating that the final trading sessions of the first half of the year will be dominated by “window dressing” and, to a greater extent, portfolio restructuring by foreign portfolios active on the Athens Stock Exchange.
More specifically, and according to several analysts, “it is customary during the final trading sessions of a quarter or half-year for ‘market making’ to become more pronounced, on the part of foreign fund managers, who engage in a barrage of ‘technical moves’ and portfolio adjustments, with some stocks coming under pressure due to the reduction of overweight positions and ‘profit-taking,’ while others act as a ‘counterweight’ to these pressures.
On the other hand, the continued weakness in the heavily weighted banking sector cannot go unnoticed, a trend confirmed by today’s 1.81% decline in the banking sector index.
It is worth noting that the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) has now recorded three consecutive sessions of declines, with cumulative losses of 4.75%. Meanwhile, the General Index, after recently closing above 2,500 points, is down 1.98%.
As for the performance of index-weighted bank stocks, analysts’ views are sharply divided.
According to those who are cautiously optimistic, “it is only a matter of time before buyers return to bank stocks, as they will rush to price in the satisfactory first-half results that are expected.”
This column has compiled the announced financial calendars for the major banks, and barring any last-minute changes, PIR will announce its first-half results on July 29, followed by ETE, EUROB and OPTIMA; on July 31, ALPHA; on August 3, BOCHGR; and on August 6, CREDIA.
On the other hand, there is, of course, a more “cautious” school of thought, according to which “until the elections and perhaps even until the Thessaloniki International Fair, it cannot be ruled out that the market will ‘see’ the banks announce additional loans, as well as some other measures in favor of borrowers and depositors.” The most experienced foreign fund managers active on the Athens Stock Exchange have extensive experience with what happens in the country and during pre-election cycles and are ‘taking their precautions.’”
Beyond that, the “rotation” in large-cap stocks—excluding the banking sector—continued today, yet another indication that there is a lack of stable options among obviously “cheap” stocks, which are not easily identifiable, if they exist at all, while at the same time, investors are seeking daily “counterweights” to the ongoing pressures on the banking sector.
In fact, those who argue that “valuations, with very few exceptions, are ‘demanding’ and that the events surrounding the wave of capital increases following the Public Power Corporation (PPC) require heightened attention” continue to insist on this point.
With no “supporters,” the overwhelming majority of mid- and small-cap stocks remain on the sidelines of trading and investor interest.
Meanwhile, according to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission’s report regarding net short positions exceeding 0.5%:
Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership maintains a net short position of 0.50525% in QLCO shares; JP Morgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd holds a net short position of 0.80012% in MTLN shares, AKO Capital LLP holds a net short position of 1.31857% in MTLN shares, Marshall Wace LLP, with a net short position of 0.71013% in MTLN shares, and Qube Research & Technologies Limited, with a net short position of 0.61894% in BYLOT shares.
Qube Research & Technologies Limited, as of June 24, reduced its net short position in ADMIE from 0.62535% to 0.45965%.
Major European markets are showing signs of a rebound, as U.S. chipmakers Micron and Qualcomm released strong quarterly results and encouraging forecasts yesterday, reassuring investors. Attention is focused on today’s data from the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and is expected to provide clues about the central bank’s next moves regarding interest rates).
More specifically, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the U.S. rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, confirming analysts’ forecasts. On a monthly basis, it rose by 0.4%, compared with a forecast of a 0.5% increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the so-called core PCE price index rose 3.4% year-over-year, in line with analysts’ forecasts. On a monthly basis, the core index rose 0.2%. This figure was in line with analysts’ forecasts.
These developments led to a decline in yields across the bond market for all issuers. The yield on the U.S. 2-year Treasury note fell to 4.11%, while the yield on the 10-year note fell to 4.38% (the yield on the 30-year note stood at 4.83%). The yield on the Greek 10-year bond fell to 3.53%.
The General Index fluctuated between 2,487.96 (+0.69%) and 2,445.04 points (-1.05%). At 5:00 p.m., it stood at 2,456.77 (-0.57%) and closed at 2,451.62 points, with daily losses of 0.78%.
Trading volume stood at 277.7 million, of which 45.2 million were pre-arranged trades (OPTIMA, REALCONS, AKTR, AEM, BYLOT, BOCHGR, ALPHA, ADMIE, DEI, OTOEL, ALMY, EUROB, PEIR, ETE, OTE), with EUROB, ETE, PEIR, and ALFA accounting for 49% of the total gross trading value.
Of the total turnover of 277.7 million, 253.1 million related to trades in FTSE 25 stocks.
The picture in the large-cap sector
Both the heavy-weight bank stocks changed direction, but the final picture leaves no room for doubt regarding the near-total dominance of the “sellers” (ALPHA -0.48%, ETE -2.4%, EUROB -2.44%, PIR -1.32%, BOCHGR -2.32%, CREDIA 0%, OPTIMA -1.18%).
The banking sector index fluctuated between 2,823.61 (+0.87%) and 2,730.75 points. At 5:00 p.m., it stood at 2,757.54 (-1.49%) and closed at 2,748.78 points, with daily losses of 1.81%.
The DTR issued a daily buy signal, which is negated by a pullback and a close below 2,638 points. The next support levels are at 2,610, 2,460 (simple 200-day moving average), and 2,429 points (exponential 200-day moving average). The next resistance level is at 2,950 points.
The final picture on the non-banking 25-stock index could be described as mixed, with BIO (-7.33%), GEKTERNA (-1.27%), ELHA (-5.54%), MTLN (-2.29%), CENER (-1.08%), AKTR (+3.09%), ARAIG (+1.74%), EEE (+1.09%), MOI (+2.07%), and OTE (+1.62%).
As of today, MTLN shares (-2.29%) were traded excluding the amount of €1.00 per share, and BIO (-7.33%) were traded without the €0.27 per share amount (subject to a 30% dividend withholding tax in accordance with Belgian law).
AKTR (+3.09%) hit a new 273-month high and is expected to make announcements very soon.
EEE shares (+1.09%) hit new all-time highs, with this column having warned that “further gains for the stock cannot be ruled out as the deal nears completion with the integration of Coca-Cola Africa.”
According to an announcement by CENER (-1.08%), “Hellenic Cables, its cable division, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Fulgor S.A., has been selected as the contractor under ADMIE’s framework agreement for Lot A of the electrical interconnections of the Dodecanese and the North Aegean Islands, with a total value of approximately 1.15 billion euros. Under the agreement, Hellenic Cables will undertake the design, procurement, construction, and installation of four interconnections, specifically Thrace–Lemnos, Kos–Rhodes, Lesbos–Lemnos, and Lesbos–Chios. Their total length amounts to approximately 694 km of 150 kV AC submarine cables and 227 km of 150 kV AC underground cables. Production is expected to begin in 2027, while the projects are scheduled for completion by 2031.”
According to an OTE announcement, “on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, it will publish its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2026 prior to the opening of the Athens Stock Exchange session. Management will host a conference call on the same day at 1:00 p.m. (Greece) / 12:00 p.m. (Europe) / 11:00 a.m. (United Kingdom) / 6:00 a.m. (Eastern U.S.) to discuss these results.”
OTE issued a €100 million bond today maturing in June 2027. The yield was set at 2.951% per annum. The new bond issue was fully underwritten by Deutsche Telekom AG. The proceeds from the new bond issue will be used to meet the OTE Group’s general operating needs. OTE shares (+1.62%) hit a 217-month high.
According to a report by Giorgos Fintikakis, “the ‘bet’—that the Group’s comparable operating profits will exceed 1.5 billion euros by the end of the decade—is being ‘played’ by Hellenic Petroleum (+0.85%) through growth and expansion in Southeast Europe, new investments in refineries, further international partnerships, and expansion into trading. If the market allows it, the 1.5 billion euros could increase further and reach 2.5 billion or even 3 billion. In the electricity sector, the goal is to improve returns through geographic diversification, the maturation of investments in renewable energy, and the leveraging of synergies, with green investments reaching 300 million euros, up from 100 million euros today. In fact, the company is considering entering the construction and management of renewable energy projects—that is, new sectors beyond the purely investment-focused one in which it currently operates.” This overview of the Group’s strategy through the end of the decade was provided by CEO Andreas Siamis.
Analysts’ assessments
“Assuming that the banking index’s months-long upward trend is not at risk (there is no reason for it to be, at present), today’s sideways movement brings the price to an interesting support level. Specifically, ALPHA and PIR have already reached their respective support levels, while ETE and EUROB are approaching them. The next target for the DTR appears to be at the 3,100 level,” reports Fast Finance S.A.
“European markets are showing a mild reaction, supported by renewed confidence in the artificial intelligence sector following Micron’s strong sales outlook and the decline in Brent crude, while investors are pricing in the May U.S. inflation report,” according to Eurobank Equities.
“A moderate recovery appears to be the most likely scenario, as the improving sentiment in international markets provides support following the recent wave of sell-offs triggered by the technology sector. However, investors are expected to remain selective, focusing their attention on corporate developments and factors that more broadly influence the market,” according to Beta Sec.
“Micron Tech’s earnings in the U.S. beat estimates, and its sales outlook was also upgraded. This provides support for technology valuations and appears to be responsible for the positive sentiment in European markets. However, the focus today will be on the May U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index data; if it comes in higher than estimates, it could dampen the positive momentum in the stock markets. In this context, the base scenario points to consolidation at current price levels, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s key support level located around 2,400 points,” notes Depolas Investment Services.
“Investor interest is expected to remain selective, with attention focused on bank stocks, the Attica Stores initial public offering, and international markets, where developments in the technology sector and commodity price movements may influence short-term investor sentiment. “The 2,500-point level remains the key benchmark for the continuation of the upward trend,” according to Kyklos Securities.
“Euronext Athens reached the historic milestone of 2,500 points, marking a 16.5-year high, as Tassos Niavis points out.
The domestic market is demonstrating remarkable resilience and strong momentum, moving independently of international pressures.
Intense activity on the corporate front and a packed agenda are the main drivers of the rally. Investors are focusing on new corporate developments, such as the debut of ADMIE’s new shares following its successful capital increase, as well as the initial public offering (IPO) of Attica Stores. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola HBC surpassed the historic milestone of 20 billion euros in market capitalization, while the METLEN Group is providing an additional boost by launching a major five-year share buyback program worth up to 600 million euros; we should also note that the AKTR Group reached a new 22-year high.
The dividend stream continues to provide valuable support for the stock’s liquidity. Despite sporadic profit-taking and slightly selective trading volume, the market sentiment remains strongly supportive.
“Trend is the best friend,” as American fund managers say, and they are absolutely right; by following the extremely strong long-term uptrend in our market, investors can “enjoy” high returns.
Technically, the index continues its third Elliott wave uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI(9)) stands at 69.24 and 72.07 on the daily and weekly charts, respectively.
The catalysts for further gains in our market will once again be the banks and the large-cap stocks of the FTSE 25, as over 90% of our daily trading volume is concentrated in these specific stocks.
Finally, it should be noted that the only “downside” in international markets is the strengthening of the dollar, due to the upcoming interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve,” according to Mr. Niavis (certified financial analyst).