Dear friends, good day to you all!
Opinion polls usually draw attention to voting intention percentages.
Who’s rising, who’s falling, who’s in the lead, who’s at risk.
The latest RealPolls survey for Protagon is no exception.
The consolidation of the Greek Left Coalition in second place, the presence of Maria Karystianou’s party in third, and PASOK’s slide to fourth are undoubtedly of political interest.
The most significant finding, however, lies elsewhere: in why citizens vote the way they do.
The survey seeks to shed light on the criteria citizens use when approaching the ballot box. And therein lies perhaps the most compelling explanation for why New Democracy continues to maintain a clear lead, despite the wear and tear of seven years in government.
31.8% of respondents consider “stability and continuity” to be the key issue at stake in the upcoming elections, while an almost identical percentage—31%—state that only a strong government can guarantee stability. These percentages coincide almost exactly with New Democracy’s current electoral support.
This is no coincidence.
There is a solid segment of society that does not vote primarily to bring about change, but to avoid uncertainty. They are not looking for something new. They are looking for predictability. They are not so much concerned with who promises more, but rather with who can manage a crisis more effectively.
It is precisely this audience that Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s famous question addresses: “Who will pick up the phone” if it rings in the middle of the night? Regardless of whether one agrees or disagrees with the argument, the poll shows that a significant portion of the public views it as a key political issue.
Equally interesting are the criteria citizens use to evaluate political parties. Problem-solving ability comes first at 41.8%, followed closely by integrity at 39.4%. In contrast, ideological identity and the leader’s personality rank much lower.
The message is clear. Citizens are less interested in what a party claims to be and more interested in what it can actually achieve. They generally do not factor in the “wallet” aspect, which is a traditional criterion for voting in Greece.
There is, however, a second way to interpret these same findings.
46.8% say they want political change. This percentage is significantly higher than the one that prioritizes stability. And yet, this desire does not translate into a unified political movement. It is scattered across different parties, figures, and choices.
Perhaps that is ultimately the real political conclusion of the survey. The government continues to lead because it has managed to become synonymous with stability. The opposition, on the other hand, is still searching for a way to convince the public that it can be a credible alternative.
And as long as that doesn’t happen, the political phone will keep ringing. The question is whether citizens have already decided who will answer it or whether they are still looking for someone who can convince them that they can do it better.