The Greek economy is recording a clear slowdown in private consumption in the first quarter of 2026, under the pressure of the new energy shock and accelerating inflation.
According to the "7 Days Economy" bulletin of Eurobank Research, the annual growth rate of real private consumption was limited to 0.7% in the first quarter, from 2.3% in the previous quarter, while on a quarterly basis consumption remained stagnant, compared to an increase of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This picture does not yet constitute a clear annual decrease in consumption, but it does show a substantial braking in household dynamics. The slowdown comes at a time when inflationary pressures are intensifying, especially due to the rise in energy prices after the crisis in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in production costs is gradually being passed on to final prices, limiting the purchasing power of households.
Price increases
Eurobank Research points out that the average annual inflation accelerated to 4.7% in the April-May two-month period, from 3.1% in the first quarter, while during the same period the consumer confidence index also deteriorated. These data increase the risk of further weakening of private consumption in the coming months.
Particular pressure is expected on goods directly linked to energy costs. Indicatively, fuel prices increased on an annual basis by 26.9% in April and by 29.1% in May, compared to an increase of 14.2% in March. This development may have already limited fuel consumption and, more generally, household spending on transportation and daily needs.
Consumer behavior will be reflected more clearly with the publication of the retail trade volume index for April by ELSTAT.
Impact on GDP
The slowdown in consumption also affects growth prospects. The European Commission, in its spring forecasts, revised downward its estimate for the growth rate of the Greek economy in 2026 to 1.8%, from 2.2% in the autumn forecasts, while it revised upward its inflation forecast to 3.7%, from 2.3%.
In contrast to private consumption, fixed investments show greater resilience, supported by funds from the Recovery and Resilience Fund. At the same time, exports of goods and services maintain a positive picture, with exports of goods at constant prices increasing by 4.6% in the January-April four-month period and exports of services strengthening by 9.3% at current prices.