The Greek economy recorded a clear slowdown in private consumption in the first quarter of 2026, under pressure from the new energy shock and accelerating inflation.
According to Eurobank Research’s “7 Days Economy” report, the annual growth rate of real private consumption slowed to 0.7% in the first quarter, down from 2.3% in the previous quarter, while on a quarterly basis, consumption remained flat, compared with a 0.7% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.
This picture does not yet constitute a clear annual decline in consumption, but it does indicate a significant slowdown in household spending momentum. The slowdown comes at a time when inflationary pressures are intensifying, particularly due to rising energy prices following the crisis in the Persian Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in production costs is gradually being passed on to final prices, limiting households’ purchasing power.
Rising Prices
Eurobank Research notes that average annual inflation accelerated to 4.7% in April–May, up from 3.1% in the first quarter, while the consumer confidence index also deteriorated during the same period. These figures increase the risk of a further weakening of private consumption in the coming months.
Particular pressure is expected on goods directly linked to energy costs. For example, fuel prices rose by 26.9% year-over-year in April and by 29.1% in May, compared with a 14.2% increase in March. This trend may have already curbed fuel consumption and, more broadly, household spending on transportation and daily necessities.
Consumer behavior will become clearer with the publication of the retail trade volume index for April by ELSTAT.
Impact on GDP
The slowdown in consumption is also affecting growth prospects. In its spring forecast, the European Commission revised downward its estimate for the Greek economy’s growth rate in 2026 to 1.8%, from 2.2% in its fall forecast, while it revised its inflation forecast upward to 3.7%, from 2.3%.
In contrast to private consumption, fixed investment is showing greater resilience, supported by funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility. At the same time, exports of goods and services continue to show a positive trend, with exports of goods at constant prices rising by 4.6% in the four-month period from January to April and exports of services increasing by 9.3% at current prices.