The second issue of the Quarterly Bulletin on Private Debt in the Greek Economy has been published by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE), with the support of CEPAL. The bulletin provides a systematic and comprehensive overview of developments in private debt in Greece, while also taking into account the broader macroeconomic and financial environment.
Emphasis is placed on the real estate market and its interaction with private debt, drawing on data and analyses provided by ReDataset.
In the first half of 2026, global economic activity slowed amid a war in the Middle East, which sent energy prices and uncertainty soaring, reigniting broader inflationary pressures. The Greek economy grew by 2.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, compared with an average of 0.3% for the Eurozone, supported by fixed investment and exports. At the same time, economic challenges persist, such as structural and headline inflation, weak household savings, and a high current account deficit.
The real estate market remained dynamic in the first quarter of 2026 with rising prices, while housing affordability constraints remain severe. Construction activity continued steadily, while inflation in material costs slowed.
Housing prices rose further in the first quarter of 2026, supported by real estate investment and foreign direct investment, which reached record levels, with one-bedroom homes posting the strongest increases (5–8%).
Mortgage disbursements accelerated, although they remain at low levels, while the majority of mortgage debt is managed by servicers. Real estate auctions slowed slightly in the first quarter of 2026, with approximately 1 in 7 scheduled auctions taking place.
The total amount of private debt continued to rise at the end of 2025, although the non-performing portion is gradually declining. Total private debt (to financial institutions, tax authorities, and social security agencies) rose to 417.0 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2025 (168% of GDP), due to the increase in performing loans and the further accumulation of overdue obligations to the public sector.
Overdue debts remain at high levels, at 237.8 billion euros, although their share of total private debt has fallen to 57.0%. Overdue debts to the public sector (AADE and EFKA) dominate, amounting to 165.2 billion euros (69% of total overdue debts). Total private debt in the form of loans amounted to 251.9 billion euros, driven primarily by business loans. Non-performing loans held by banks and asset managers have stabilized at around 30% of total loans, with asset managers now holding 92% of non-performing loans.
The special feature in the second issue analyzes the evolution of old-age pensions in Greece during the period 2019–2025, by pension level and age of beneficiaries, highlighting the impact of inflation.
It is found that the average old-age pension remained generally stable in real terms during the period 2019–2025, alongside the aging of the pensioner population (89% of retirees are over 65) and the narrowing of the gap between public and private sector pensions, as the average pension for civil servants decreased in real terms, while the average pension for private-sector workers remained unchanged in real terms.
Expectations of higher interest rates in the second half of 2026 and households’ expectations of further increases in housing prices pose challenges to the prospects of faster repayment of overdue private debt.
* See the report in the “Supplementary Material” column.