More than one in ten consumers are estimated to systematically use AI agents to make online purchases on their behalf by 2030, according to Mastercard's new report, A Short History of the Future of Shopping and Payments.
The report combines new Mastercard research with the estimates of four internationally recognized experts from the US, Europe, and Asia, examining how artificial intelligence is expected to transform the shopping and payments experience by the end of the decade.
Among the key trends highlighted, AI agents are expected to take on more and more everyday purchases, and even negotiate prices on behalf of consumers.
At the same time, smart devices such as watches and rings will provide personalized product information before and after purchase, while artificial intelligence will take on a more active role within physical stores as well.
AI agents are gradually becoming part of consumers' everyday lives
The report was developed in collaboration with four internationally recognized experts on the future of artificial intelligence and commerce, Magnus Lindkvist, Patrick Dixon, Katja Forbes and Theodora Lau.
Everyday and recurring purchases, such as groceries, medicines, and subscription services, are expected to be among the first that consumers will assign to AI agents.
“By 2030, buying a product and the shopping experience will not necessarily be the same thing”, notes Magnus Lindkvist.
“AI agents will take over the most everyday purchases, leaving the shopping experience to be associated more with discovery, inspiration, and enjoyment.”
Younger consumers are already adopting AI in their shopping
These forecasts are reinforced by findings from recent international Mastercard research, which show that the shift in shopping habits has already begun.
The research, conducted among 26,000 parents and teenagers aged 13 to 18 in 13 countries, shows that teenagers are already using artificial intelligence in their purchasing decisions at about twice the frequency of their parents.
At the same time, 62% believe that AI will significantly change the way their generation shops in the future.
Trust in the technology is also increasing: 31% of teenagers say they would trust a product recommendation from AI more than one from a friend, while 23% more than their parents' advice.
Businesses will now address both people and AI agents
The report highlights the emergence of a new type of “customer” for retail: the AI agent.
Within a few seconds, it will be able to analyze a large volume of data, cross-check information, evaluate reviews and user comments and, then, select and complete a purchase.
For businesses, this means that the digital experience, product information, and rewards programs will need to be equally accessible and understandable to both people and AI agents.
Elements such as certifications, origin information, or sustainability features will need to be easily identifiable and verifiable.
Trust is emerging as a key competitive advantage
According to the report, trust will be a decisive factor in the evolution of agentic commerce.
“Every major change in the history of commerce was, in essence, also a change in the way trust is built. From traditional markets to e-commerce, every development asked us to trust something new”, notes Magnus Lindkvist.
In this new environment, consumers will be asked to trust technology not only to suggest options to them, but also to act on their behalf.
According to Theodora Lau, businesses and financial institutions will need to earn this trust through clear frameworks for identification, consent, authorization, and accountability.
She predicts that by 2030 at least three regulatory authorities from G20 countries will have issued official guidelines for the registration and supervision of AI agents.
At the same time, the intent behind a payment is expected to become just as important as the transaction itself, as the authorization a consumer gives to an AI agent will need to be recognized and verified even before the purchase is completed.
Agentic commerce is already moving from theory to practice
Although the report looks toward 2030, the first examples of agentic commerce are already a reality.
Earlier this year, Mastercard and its partners completed the first live end-to-end agentic payment in Europe, demonstrating in practice how AI agents can safely support the shopping and payment experience, with the necessary safeguards, transparency, and retention of control by the consumer.
You can view the full report, with all the findings and forecasts, here.