The leading position of Aegean in the Greek market and its dominance at the Athens hub form the basis of its long-term attractiveness, Eurobank Equities notes in its analysis.
The growth of Greek tourism, expansion into periods of lower seasonality, a broader international network and a newer and more efficient fleet should support passenger traffic and the quality of earnings, although increasing competition may make pricing less predictable.
The resurgence of tensions in the Middle East is now testing this resilience through higher fuel prices and regional disruptions, although demand for air travel remains strong so far. Management’s proven ability to manage previous crises further strengthens our confidence in the group’s operational and financial resilience, the analysts write.
2026 marks a low point driven by costs rather than demand; we reduce 2026E EBITDA by about 15%. We significantly revise our forecasts for 2026 downward, lowering our revenue forecast by 3%, EBITDA by 15% and net profit by 50% versus our previous estimates, the analysts continue.
We now forecast that revenue in 2026 will increase by 2% year-on-year, to €1.89 billion, but EBITDA will decline by about 10% year-on-year, to €378 million, and EBIT by 28% year-on-year.
Negative financial and foreign exchange effects will intensify the decline in the bottom line, with net profit falling by 53% year-on-year, to €69 million, according to our estimates.
From 2027, however, the easing of engine-related maintenance constraints is expected to restore available capacity and support passenger traffic growth, driving revenue from €1.89 billion in 2026 to €2.25 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of about 9%.
At the same time, the brokerage expects EBIT to recover to €180 million in 2027 and about €214 million in 2028 (CAGR of about 16% over a two-year horizon), while net profit is expected to reach €120 million in 2028, essentially unchanged compared with adjusted 2025 (excluding foreign exchange gains), effectively indicating a return to normalized levels.
As a result of the downward revisions to earnings estimates, the target price is reduced to 15.9 euros per share (from 16 euros), which still implies a particularly attractive expected total return of about 35%.
At our target price, Aegean will trade at about 11.2x EV/EBIT for 2027 and 9.1x for 2028, toward the upper end of the peer group range.