Buy recommendation for Aegean stock, with a 12-month target price of 15 euros, is given by Solidus Securities. The target price implies an upside margin of 33.9% from the current levels of approximately 11.20 euros. The brokerage estimates that the pressure on first-half profitability is temporary and that the market values the stock at an excessive discount.
“We maintain a positive stance on AEGEAN stock, based on revenue resilience, the strong balance sheet and the clear hedging of fuel cost risk. We consider the short-term profitability shock cyclical and largely temporary, while the upcoming upgrade of the Athens Stock Exchange to Developed Market adds an additional positive catalyst of flows for the stock,” notes in his report Solidus research director, Dr. Panos Dantis.
Valuation
Solidus values the company using the EV/EBITDA method. The calculation basis is the twelve-month EBITDA as of June 30, amounting to 410.6 million euros, and net debt together with leases, amounting to 676.4 million euros.
With a target multiple of 5x, versus about 4.1x at current prices, a fair value of 15.27 euros per share emerges. The brokerage conservatively sets the target price at 15 euros, within the range of estimates by Optima and Eurobank Equities. According to Solidus, the stock’s discount is excessive, given the strong liquidity and the hedging of 60% of fuel needs for 2026.
Half-year results
In the first half of 2026, Aegean’s revenue increased by 4%, to 816.6 million euros. EBITDA declined by 7%, to 145.3 million euros, and the margin narrowed to 17.8% from 19.9%. At the bottom-line level, the group posted losses after tax of 3.3 million euros, versus profits of 47.9 million euros last year.
The report attributes the pressure to four factors:
- Fuel: Its cost increased by 11%, to 184.3 million euros, with a net burden of 40 million euros after hedging.
- Geopolitical crisis: The suspension of flights to part of the international network from March to June, due to the war in the Middle East, limited activity.
- Emission rights: The expense doubled, to 43.8 million euros.
- Exchange differences: Negative differences were 14.1 million euros, versus positive 30.6 million euros in 2025.
Demand, however, held up. Passengers increased by 3%, to 7.77 million, and the average yield per passenger also improved by 3%. The domestic network grew by 6%, while the international network remained flat. In the July-August two-month period, passenger traffic recovered by 4.8%, which Solidus interprets as a sign of stabilization.
Strong balance sheet
Excluding leases, Aegean has a net cash position of 437.8 million euros, up from 290.9 million euros at the end of 2025. The position was strengthened despite the payment of a dividend of 81.1 million euros (0.90 euros per share) in May. The net debt to EBITDA ratio remained stable at 1.6x and operating cash flows amounted to 299.4 million euros, from 228.9 million euros. The dividend yield for fiscal year 2025 stands at 7.5%.
Solidus describes as correct the disciplined capacity policy announced by management for the next 6 to 8 months. This choice gives priority to protecting margins, in an environment where jet fuel costs twice as much as at the beginning of the year. At the same time, fleet renewal continues: deliveries of Airbus neo aircraft reached 43 and another two A321neo are expected by the end of September.
The risks
Among the main risks, the report includes:
- exposure to the 40% of fuel needs that has not been hedged,
- a possible escalation of tensions in the Middle East,
- the tightening of the European framework for emissions (ETS/SAF),
- fluctuations in the euro/dollar exchange rate,
- competition from low-cost airlines.