The new report by Alpha Finance, AXIA and Kepler Cheuvreux sets the target price for Metlen at €72.5, noting that critical metals can be a game changer for the listed company
The report maintains a “Buy” recommendation and slightly raises the target price to €72.5, seeing a total return of about +59% from current levels, while the bull case is set at €91.5.
For the financial figures, the Report forecasts EBITDA of approximately €1.1 billion in 2026 and more than €1.9 billion by 2030, combined with strong free cash flows, further deleveraging, support for the investment grade rating and significant returns to shareholders, including the approved €600 million buyback.
Analysts estimate that critical metals can be a game changer for Metlen, with upward revisions to earnings estimates potentially coming earlier than the market currently expects.
The Report estimates that the market does not yet fully value the potential of the M-CRM sector, leaving room for a significant rerating of the stock.
It places particular emphasis on the high prices of gallium, around $3,500/kg, the signing of the first offtake agreement, as well as the advanced completion of the metals recovery unit in Thessaloniki. Analysts now value the gallium business separately at €1.5 billion, recognizing its strategic importance.
M-CRM is expected to act as a catalyst, especially if the development of production of other critical metals, such as scandium and germanium, moves forward.
It is noted that the report adopts conservative assumptions in its estimates, leaving room for further upward revisions (further upside)
The revised asset rotation strategy, with emphasis on project presales, BESS, hybrid projects and data centres, is estimated to significantly reduce execution risks, while at the same time maintaining Metlen's strong growth profile. The agreement for Tamarico II in Chile is cited as a characteristic example of the new approach.