The wave of price increases across the entire energy chain and the impending difficult winter are bringing government support measures for households and businesses closer, with decisions expected within the next fortnight and the scenarios concerning all open fronts.
From the continuation of the state subsidy and the discounts provided by the refineries on motor fuels, to generous support for heating oil whose distribution begins on October 15 and which at current prices may come out even 80% higher than last year, as well as the return of subsidies on electricity, everything is on the table.
In reality, however, and despite the 130 million euros available to the government from the 2025 surplus, the equation that the economic staff is called upon to solve must also take into account the fiscal reserves it must keep, since no one can predict the duration of the crisis, nor that it will not extend deep into 2027.
This was also the tone of yesterday's broad government meeting under the Prime Minister, where the data were assessed, proposals and alternative scenarios were put on the table, it was discussed how much, where and what the budget can provide, however no decisions were taken, something that is expected toward the end of the month.
“A key factor in the equation is when the government will give what, and how many resources it will keep for later. This is also the reason why the level, size and scope of the interventions cannot yet be predetermined,” as a government official tells Εuro2day.gr.
In this direction, given the line for targeted measures, with a strict perimeter and specific duration, but also that the perfect energy storm over Europe is in full swing, therefore imposing the logic “we go month by month”, it cannot be ruled out that the government interventions will take place in two phases.
Gasoline, diesel fuel
The first phase of announcements is expected to concern motor fuels. At the end of September, the current subsidy for the prices of unleaded gasoline and diesel expires, which is financed by refineries and the state, and everything indicates that the measure will be extended in order to limit new increases.
However, to the question of what the amount of the subsidy should be, the answer is not at all easy, given that prices have risen significantly.
Although the state aid together with the discount from the refineries add up to a total reduction of 10 cents/liter for unleaded gasoline and 15 cents for diesel, the daily increases in international prices have wiped it out. In the latest nationwide price survey, the average for diesel was “hovering” at 2.139 euros and for gasoline at 2.17 euros.
Heating oil
The second phase of the interventions will focus on heating oil, ahead of the start of its distribution on October 15. If it were released on the market today, it would be sold even close to 2 euros per liter, whereas last year's starting price was around 1.10 euros.
The scenarios being considered include direct intervention in the price of heating oil, in cooperation with the refineries, as well as changes to the structure of the heating allowance.
But although it is being said, for example, that the refineries have been asked to shoulder part of the burden on heating oil, as they did with diesel, even if the scenario applies, it remains to be seen how it will work in practice. Because to the extent that the fuel comes out close to 2 euros/liter, a reduction on the order of 10-15 cents will not make the difference. It will still be 70% more expensive than in the corresponding period last year.
Increase in the heating allowance
Increasing the heating allowance and broadening the base of beneficiaries, by relaxing the thresholds so that more low- and middle-income households are included, is always on the table. In the corresponding period last year, the amount of support ranged from 100 to 800 euros, while in areas where particularly low temperatures prevail it could reach up to 1,200 euros.
Electricity subsidies
If the picture in the markets does not change, the “crisis of the two Straits” (Hormuz and the Red Sea) persists and natural gas continues to move around 80 euros/MWh, the Greek wholesale electricity market will continue to run with an increase close to 20% compared to the previous month.
This in turn will bring price increases in the green tariffs for October, pushing the average perhaps even above 20 cents/KWh, and will most likely activate the subsidies that have not appeared since March 2025.
And while today the Greek wholesale market, always with the contribution of photovoltaics and wind power, is once again among the cheapest in Europe (142.3 euros/MWh versus 170-180 euros of previous days), this is a fortunate circumstance that is by no means certain to be sustained.
It is also being said that the provision of stronger incentives is being considered to shift consumers toward electric energy and specifically toward fixed blue tariffs, something which for the time being is also one of the many scenarios being put on the table.
Industrial electricity
It is also considered certain that industry will enter the game for support measures. Characteristic was yesterday's reference by the President of SEV Spiros Theodoropoulos, that while “the steps that have been taken to strengthen the competitiveness of the Greek economy are important, however the next phase requires more ambitious interventions for productive investments, technological transformation and addressing energy costs”. Inevitably, the cost of the energy measures will widen.
What measures other countries are taking
In this overheated environment, where everyone is examining the framework for protecting households and businesses, countries one after another, depending also on their capacities, are proceeding to take immediate measures, with yesterday's announcements by Germany's Economy Minister, Katerina Raiche, standing out, for a temporary reduction of VAT on fuels from 19% to 7%.
“Such a move could address the burden where it is immediately felt: at the fuel station pump, and would have immediate effect from the moment the measure is implemented,” she said yesterday on the sidelines of the G20 Energy Ministers' Summit in Houston, Texas.
In the case of Croatia, the government approved last week a package of measures worth 260 million euros, which focuses on maintaining stable electricity and natural gas prices for households and small businesses. The country had already proceeded with a reduction in excise duties.
In Spain, the government package worth 5 billion euros includes a reduction of VAT on electricity bills to 10%, a reduction in fuel prices by up to 30 cents per liter, as well as a special subsidy of 20 cents per liter for farmers and professionals in the transport sector.
Similarly, our neighboring Romania has acted by imposing a cap on the profit margins of fuel companies, restrictions on exports, and also announcing a 147 million euro program to cover part of fuel costs in the road transport sector.