To BBB+, one notch above investment grade, the Scope Ratings agency upgraded the rating for Greek creditworthiness, setting a stable outlook.
It is noted that tonight Moody's verdict is also scheduled (rating “Baa3” and stable outlook). The next scheduled assessments of Greek creditworthiness will take place on: 23 October 2026: Standard & Poor's and on 6 November 2026: Fitch Ratings (completion of the annual cycle).
In detail, Scope Ratings GmbH today upgraded the Hellenic Republic’s (Greece) long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to BBB+, from BBB, in both local and foreign currency, and revised the Outlook to Stable, from Positive.
The short-term issuer rating was affirmed at S-2, in both local and foreign currency. According to Scope’s rating definitions, as updated in December 2025, no outlook is assigned to short-term ratings. Therefore, the Stable Outlook for Greece’s short-term S-2 ratings was withdrawn, as it is a non-relevant rating category.
Greece’s upgrade to BBB+ reflects:
The rapid decline in the public debt ratio and the strengthening of fiscal sustainability, supported by large and sustainable primary surpluses, structural improvements in tax administration and compliance, as well as a track record of prudent fiscal management. These factors have strengthened the government’s ability to increase its revenues and support the continuation of debt reduction.
The improvement in the economy’s resilience and medium-term growth prospects, supported by the continued implementation of reforms, strong investment momentum and significant EU-funded investment programmes. In recent years Greece has consistently recorded higher growth rates than the euro area, while there is growing evidence of enhanced resilience compared with the period before the pandemic.
Key rating drivers
Rapid debt reduction and strengthening of fiscal sustainability
Greece’s fiscal performance remains very strong, supported by strong revenue growth, structural improvements in tax administration and compliance, as well as prudent expenditure management. In 2025 Greece recorded a general government surplus of 1.7% of GDP and a primary surplus of 4.9% of GDP.
Fiscal performance remains resilient in 2026 as well, despite the less supportive external environment, highlighting the strengthening of Greece’s fiscal position and the authorities’ continued commitment to prudent fiscal management.
As a result, Scope expects Greece’s fiscal performance to remain among the strongest in the EU, with the fiscal surplus standing at around 3.0% of GDP in 2026 and the primary surplus at around 4.1% of GDP.
Although Scope expects a gradual decline in the primary surplus to 3.7% of GDP in 2027, due to a measured fiscal expansion through higher pension spending and temporary energy support measures, fiscal balances are expected to remain strong and support the continuation of debt reduction.
The continued strengthening of tax administration, supported by institutional reforms and digitalisation, has significantly improved revenue collection. As a result of these improvements, the ratio of tax revenues to GDP increased from 20.5% in 2009 to around 28.0% in 2025, while VAT revenues increased from 7.1% to around 9.5% of GDP over the same period.
Scope expects these reforms to continue to support significant primary surpluses, which are projected to average around 3.0% of GDP over the 2028-2031 period.
Sustainable primary surpluses and the favourable difference between growth rates and interest rates continue to support the rapid decline in Greece’s public debt ratio.
Real GDP growth averaged 2.1% over the 2023-2025 period, significantly higher than the EU average, which stood at around 1.0%, and is projected to remain resilient, at 1.9% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
Combined with the continuation of fiscal surpluses, Scope expects this to lead to a decline in public debt to around 136% of GDP in 2026, from 146.1% in 2025, supported by further early repayments of existing government debt.
Scope forecasts a further decline in the debt ratio, to around 110% of GDP by 2031. Although inflation is expected to remain elevated at 3.8% in 2026, before declining, continued nominal GDP growth is expected to provide additional support for debt reduction in the medium term.
Debt sustainability is further strengthened by the particularly favourable structure of Greek debt, which is characterised by long maturities, low refinancing risks, significant cash reserves and a high share of favourable financing from the official sector.
About 70% of government debt is owed to official sector creditors on particularly favourable terms, while the weighted average maturity of public debt stood at 18.3 years in June 2026.
At the same time, significant cash holdings, amounting to around €31 billion, corresponding to 13% of GDP, provide an important “buffer” against market volatility. Gross financing needs are expected to remain comfortably below 10% of GDP in the medium term.
Interest payments as a percentage of government revenues are projected to remain very low in the coming years, averaging 6.8% over the 2026-2031 period.
Combined with active debt management, these factors support debt-servicing capacity and compare favourably with many other countries that have significantly lower debt ratios.
As a result, the sustainability of Greek debt has been significantly strengthened, supporting Greece’s upgrade to BBB+, despite the fact that the level of public debt remains high.