The last three years constitute an absolute disaster from a geopolitical point of view, Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis says in his speech at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy of the University of Toronto, on the topic “The advent of a new geopolitical era,” underlining that at this moment power will prevail over principles.
“Everything that could go wrong, essentially did indeed go wrong”, he notes and stresses that it is perhaps the worst period to be foreign minister of a small to medium-sized country such as Greece. In fact, Greece had the great privilege of being a non-permanent member of the Security Council, as an elected member. “If I had known that we would find ourselves in such a turbulent period, obviously we would not have put ourselves forward and we would not have campaigned to become a member of the Security Council”.
He notes that for the first time since World War II, we have a series of conditions that are occurring cumulatively and simultaneously. “We are experiencing certain tectonic geopolitical changes and the most striking is the fact that we are observing a complete retreat of International Law and multilateralism”.
“Power is essentially becoming the critical element, while the rules-based international security architecture, on which the world was built after World War II, is receding”, he stresses.
At the same time, he says, new and transregional alliances are being created, while geography is losing its role as a key factor in diplomacy. For example, Europe is now evolving into a “Europe plus” in order to include Canada as the first associated partner.
“There is not a single event taking place in geopolitics today that is geographically limited. We see armed conflicts spreading. In fact, we have the largest number of armed conflicts worldwide since World War II. We have more than 60 armed conflicts”, he stresses.
Also, for the first time we are facing a major issue of energy insecurity because of what is happening in the Gulf, in the Red Sea and now in Saudi Arabia. At the same time, we also have the issue of food insecurity, if one looks at what is happening in Ukraine, where the grain corridor has essentially collapsed and on the other hand, we have water scarcity.
We are also in the midst of an industrial revolution, especially with Artificial Intelligence dominating technological life and essentially shaping political perceptions. “We are going to see some truly paradoxical election campaigns”, he notes and stresses that in the eight electoral contests expected in Europe next year, Artificial Intelligence will dominate. “We all expect it, but we do not have the means to overcome this phenomenon”.
We also have a complete change in the way people communicate, as almost 90% of people now receive their information through social media, sacrificing the integrity of information for the sake of speed, the immediacy with which information is transmitted.
“The consequences are quite obvious. We are seeing the rise of new powers, which are now emerging as an alternative to the old regime, in an era that has passed. And we see new institutions emerging from the traditional organizations that are receding”, he notes and stresses that the question now is whether the regime we are facing today is simply a transitional period or whether it will constitute the new state of international relations.
“At this moment, we are once again trying to find our bearings toward a new era. It is absolutely clear that power plays a very dominant role and that we do not have the tools to deal effectively with this phenomenon”, he underlines.
He himself is traveling tomorrow to New York for the High-Level Week of the United Nations General Assembly and “we all feel that the United Nations are today in very bad shape”, since “they have in practice failed to produce any substantial resolution regarding the 61 armed conflicts we are facing worldwide today”.
“We do not have a single resolution regarding Ukraine, not a single resolution for five years. We could not have one, because any resolution would condemn, more or less, Russia for the war of aggression, while Russia has the right of veto and, thus, in the end, we had no resolution”, he notes. “We have entered the era of the paradox of the veto”.
He recalls that even within the EU, each of the 27 member states has an individual right of veto, with the result that in Europe we were unable to make an effective decision on Ukraine.
“The veto within the EU was used in order to protect the powerless, the less powerful states. It was the means of the weaker ones, so that they could reject the will of the powerful states. So that small states could stand on their own against the will of the other states”, he notes. The result, however, he stresses, is inertia.
The foreign minister notes that we seem to be moving toward the idea of strategic autonomy and that we must increase defense spending, and he adds that this is likely to be the end of the traditional post-war international security architecture.
“Now is the time for states to form strong alliances and express collective concerns”, he says. “The issue, however, is that we still have not found the appropriate tools and, in all likelihood, next week, after the General Assembly, we will once again be discussing the missed opportunity to reconsider and reinvigorate the United Nations”.
“We trusted the United Nations. The truth is that the Organization did not deliver. At this moment we do not have an alternative and, until we find an alternative, power will prevail over principles”, he concludes.
SOURCE: ANA-MPA