The presence of the political leaders at the TIF ultimately did not lead to any particular change in the balance of power on the political scene, at least as reflected in the published surveys, and at the Maximos Mansion they are charting the strategy for the next period, on a road that is not strewn with “rose petals”.
Although the country’s economic performance continues to be a key argument of Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who underlines faster growth compared to the European average and the reduction of debt combined with the safeguarding of fiscal reserves, the reality is that citizens’ daily lives are being severely tested once again because of the cost of energy.
The escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, combined with the prolonged war in Ukraine, have caused a new wave of price increases, with the energy pressure being transferred even more intensely to a large part of the market.
This is also the most critical bet for the Maximos Mansion: to limit the effects of high prices without jeopardizing fiscal balance.
The prime minister has already announced, among other things, interventions in heating oil, with the aim of setting its price below 1.75 euros per liter, as well as a horizontal increase in the heating allowance. At the same time, the continuation of support for diesel fuel has been announced.
The government is signaling on the one hand that there are reserves to support households, but at the same time that these are not unlimited. The discussion about a possible temporary reduction of the Special Consumption Tax is considered critical, which, according to the prime minister, is linked to the European fiscal framework and the possibility of exempting extraordinary expenses from fiscal ceilings, with an overall exemption for a temporary reduction in the taxation of fossil fuels.
The second bet is purely political: the government must approach social groups which, according to the measurements that followed the TIF, do not seem to have been convinced to the same degree by the government announcements.
Self-employed professionals, farmers and civil servants are three characteristic audiences in which the government’s effort of persuasion will have to intensify. The critical thing is for the announced measures to translate into a tangible improvement in disposable income and daily life. And this is the difficulty of the next period.
The Maximos Mansion wants to turn the economic figures into a tangible social result, at a time, however, when the new wave of energy-driven high prices may weaken part of the benefit from the interventions announced in Thessaloniki.
Comfortable lead
The first post-election measurements after the TIF show that ND continues to record a comfortable lead, with almost all polls (except ours, to be precise) placing it above 30% in vote estimation. However, the political objective for the ruling party is the broadening of its social appeal, which is related to the prime minister’s third autumn bet, intra-party cohesion.
The recent MRB survey for OPEN records ND’s cohesion at 72.5% compared to its performance in the 2024 European elections, while of particular interest is the fact that the largest recorded leakage (9.8%) is directed toward the undecided vote.
This element shows that there is still significant room for the reunification of ND’s electoral base. At the same time, however, it also highlights a basic prerequisite for the government strategy: that the cohesion of its traditional audience be maintained without losing the ability to approach voters who are outside the narrow party core.
That is why in the next period greater emphasis is expected to be placed on the dilemmas of the upcoming elections. In this case, stability, the continuation of economic policy and the need to avoid a period of political uncertainty will constitute basic axes of the government’s argumentation.
Starting, moreover, from the +30% in the polls, they estimate that, with the implementation of their commitments, the delivery of projects (public infrastructure, renovated schools and hospitals) and the correction of any mistakes, they will have chances of approaching the percentages of single-party majority. Something they do not rule out may happen in second, repeat elections, although officially they insist on the logic of one and only one electoral process.