Eurobank Equities is proceeding with a revision of the target price for Sarantis, lowering it to €15.1 from €16, while at the same time maintaining the Buy recommendation.
As the brokerage notes, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of resetting expectations, as geopolitical developments in the Middle East have intensified pressures on inflation, exchange rates, and the supply chain. At the same time, demand has declined in certain markets, while exports are returning to more normal levels after last year’s strong base.
Given the weaker close of the second quarter, the increased transportation costs, and the delay in implementing price increases, management withdrew its numerical guidance for 2026. Eurobank Equities cuts its forecast for core EBIT by 5%, now expecting an increase of about 2% to €63.3 million, with the margin remaining at 11.2%.
The brokerage, however, describes the recovery in margins as more postponed rather than derailed. From 2027, it expects the synergies from Stella Pack, automation, pricing, and the improvement in the product mix to become more visible. It forecasts core EBIT growth of 12% in 2027, to €76.8 million, and by 9% in 2028, to €83.7 million, with margins strengthening to 11.9% and 12.4% respectively.
Despite the temporary change in net position from €23.5 million net cash at the end of 2025 to €29.6 million net debt at the half-year, Eurobank Equities considers the company’s balance sheet strong. The recovery in cash flows, lower investment needs, and the collection of the final €21 million installment from the acquisition of Estée Lauder’s stake in 2028 are expected to support the return to a net cash position.
The stock is trading at an estimated P/E of 12.7x for 2027 and EV/EBITDA of 6.9x, at a discount of about 20%-34% versus the median valuation of comparable European companies. According to Eurobank Equities, the valuation incorporates a large part of the short-term uncertainty, while a sustainable re-rating of the stock will require clearer signs of recovery in sales and margins from 2027.