Optima, a Greek challenger bank without legacy burdens from the Greek financial crisis, offers differentiated exposure to an attractive Greek banking sector and to the strong increase in corporate credit expansion, UBS notes in a report with which it initiates coverage of the stock.
We estimate, the analysts write, that it could continue to positively surprise, having raised guidance in the results of the second quarter of 2026. It offers an attractive combination of high growth (UBSe EPS ~22% annually for fiscal years 2025-2028E) and sector-leading profitability (ROTE sustainable at around 24%, in our view). We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a target price of €16.
Optima stands out with the highest earnings growth prospects in the sector, having a good track record of increasing its share in the credit market (it has only about 3.4%, which we estimate will rise toward 5.3% by fiscal year 2030). Having raised its guidance for net profit for fiscal year 2026 to >€210 million (UBS estimate €222 million) and for ROTE from 24% to 25% (UBS estimate 27.3%), we see further upside potential, especially for NIM in a higher interest rate environment, as it is one of the banks with the greatest sensitivity to interest rates.
A possible constraint is the relatively low CET1 ratio, at 11.8%, although we expect capital strengthening in the medium term and the bank has no DTCs in its capital.
We consider it a differentiated investment choice, with Piraeus being our top pick among the Greek systemic banks. We estimate that the next catalyst is the results of the third quarter of 2026, which are expected on November 11, the analysts conclude.