The need for things to change in the country, amid intense social discontent, in which the problem of high prices plays the leading role, is recorded by the Metron Analysis poll, which was presented on MEGA's evening news bulletin.
This means that the stabilization of ND's rallying in a minority section of society and, by extension, of the political system, comes into conflict with the basic characteristic of the political balance of forces, which is majority discontent, the negative assessment of the country's condition and prospects, and a demand for change.
As for the forces that represent this demand for political change, the poll records a clear lead for the Greek Left Alliance and Alexis Tsipras over PASOK, at a time when Hope for Democracy of Maria Karystianou fails to become a strong pole of opposition and declines significantly in the polls.
Deep social discontent
The strong disapproval of the policies implemented in recent years is reflected first of all in the fact that 66% of respondents in the poll argue that things are going in the wrong direction and only 29% in the right one.
This negative assessment also extends to individual economic and social circumstances, with 49% arguing that they are in a worse situation, 38% in the same one, and only 13% arguing that they are in a better situation.
As for the problems that society ranks, high prices remain at the top, with 52% mentioning them as an important problem, followed by the economy, which is mentioned by 34%, something that shows that at the core of discontent lies the government's inability to provide answers to the cost-of-living crisis that society is facing.
The negative picture regarding the state of the economy and the country's economic prospects is also reflected in the poll in relation to the economic confidence index, which is the average of the balance of the assessment of the country's current economic situation (positive-negative) and the balance of the forecast for the economy (it will improve-it will worsen), and which falls to -51, with significant negative changes in economic confidence being recorded among public and private sector employees as well as pensioners.
Negative rating in all areas of government work
The government gets a poor rating, that is, more negative opinions in all areas of government work. Only on geopolitical issues and overall foreign policy issues does it have relatively high positive opinions.
Negative assessment of government and official opposition
As a result, the poll shows that the assessment of the government remains negative, with 66% having a negative impression of the government's work and only 29% having a positive one.
This also extends to a negative assessment of the prime minister himself and the way he performs his duties, which reaches 65%, with only 31% having a positive assessment.
However, as in previous polls, opinion also remains negative about PASOK as the official opposition, as 80% of respondents answered that they have a negative opinion and only 12% – a percentage that essentially corresponds to its “narrow” electoral influence – have a positive one.
This negative assessment also extends to the leader of the official opposition, Nikos Androulakis, for whom there are 78% negative opinions, with positive ones reaching 16%.
How citizens assessed the announcements at the TIF
Citizens to a significant degree engaged with the TIF announcements, as 36% watched and 40% answered that they heard something. In age terms, this mainly concerned people between 30 and 80, by and large the ages for whom economic issues are of more direct concern.
As for which politician had the best presence, according to the poll, first place is shared by Kyriakos Mitsotakis and “No one,” with 24%, followed by Alexis Tsipras with 12% and Nikos Androulakis with 8%.
Negative opinion of Trump and the European Union
The Metron Analysis poll shows that 85% have a negative opinion of Donald Trump, something that shows that his most recent choices for new aggressive war involvements have been assessed negatively by citizens, and thus we have a significant increase in negative opinions from 62% last December, while positive opinions are limited to 10% from 29% in December.
Equally negative is the view of the European Union, with negative opinions reaching 63% and positive ones limited to 41%.
How the popularity of political leaders is recorded
In relation to the general popularity of political leaders, the poll shows that Zoe Konstantopoulou is in first place with 35%, followed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis with 33%, Dimitris Koutsoumbas with 32%, and then Alexis Tsipras with 27%, the same percentage of positive opinions that Maria Karystianou also has.
However, in the question of who is more suitable for prime minister, a different question that does not measure general popularity but the assessment of governing ability, Kyriakos Mitsotakis gets 30%, Alexis Tsipras 13%, Nikos Androulakis 7%, while “No one” remains high at 25%.
How the political and electoral balances are shaped
According to the poll, New Democracy remains at the same level with voting intention at 25.1%, ELAS has 13.1% versus 14.1% in June, PASOK 10.5% (June 9.4%), SYRIZA remains at very low percentages (1.2%), while New Left does not exceed a recording threshold. Hope for Democracy has declined to 3.6%. KKE is stable at 5%, Greek Solution at 5.7% versus 4.7% in June, Course of Freedom with a slight rise to 4.9%, Voice of Reason at 4.4%, while MeRA25 appears to be crossing the 3% threshold.
New Democracy records a rallying at 69.3% with leakages to Voice of Reason, PASOK, ELAS and Greek Solution, while it also has a significant percentage in the “gray zone.”
PASOK has high rallying at 75.2% and leakages mainly to ELAS and ND.
SYRIZA, in complete disintegration, goes primarily to ELAS and then to PASOK as well as MeRA25.
As for where the voters of the parties now appearing for the first time come from, the poll shows that ELAS gets voters primarily from SYRIZA, the “gray zone,” New Democracy and PASOK, while Hope for Democracy gets them from the “gray zone,” the “other parties,” New Democracy and SYRIZA.
As for the undecided vote, this comes primarily from the gray zone, the other parties, New Democracy and SYRIZA.
As for how voting intention is distributed based on political self-placement on the Left–Right scale, the poll shows that New Democracy continues to have the strongest presence among center-right voters, declining among those who declare themselves right-wing, PASOK among center-left and centrist voters, ELAS among center-left and left-wing voters, Hope for Democracy among centrists, and Greek Solution among right-wing voters.
What vote estimate Metron Analysis makes
On the basis of the above, the vote estimate of Metro Analysis gives 30.2% to New Democracy, from 30.4% in June, 15.8% to ELAS (from 17.1 in June), 12.6% to PASOK (from 11.4% in June), sees Greek Solution in third place with 6.9% (from 5.7%), KKE in fourth with 6.1%, followed by Course of Freedom with 5.8% and Voice of Reason with 5.3%. Hope for Democracy is in decline. Niki, SYRIZA, and the Democrats appear to remain outside Parliament, while MeRA25 crosses the threshold.
What is the appeal of a possible party under Antonis Samaras
Among the interesting elements presented by the poll is also the estimate of the potential appeal of a party under Antonis Samaras.
The estimate is that 5% say they are very likely to vote for it, therefore an existing base, and 8% that they would probably vote for it. This appeal increases the further right we move in political self-placement.
Correspondingly, the poll shows that Mr. Samaras draws voters mainly from ND and PASOK.
Division between single-party governments and coalition governments
The poll shows that public opinion is divided on the question between single-party governments and coalition governments. In favor of coalition governments are those who identify themselves as left-wing and center-left, in contrast to those who identify themselves as center-right and right-wing, while centrists are divided. Something that is also reflected among the voters of the different parties.
Majority demand for political change
The poll underlines that within Greek society there is a strong demand for political change. That is why 61% argue that the country needs political change, while 38% state that it needs political stability. The demand for political change is strong among left-wing, center-left and centrist voters, the center-right have a strong position in favor of stability, while a relatively strong demand for political change is also recorded among right-wing voters. In party terms, the voters of the opposition parties are obviously in favor of political change.