Clearly upward, the last session of the week, with the main indices of the ATHEX (GI, FTSE25) moving permanently in positive territory, as buyers regained confidence, also getting help from the initially positive picture of the European markets, the slight de-escalation in oil prices and yields in the government bond market.
Indeed, according to information from brokerage offices, the upward move was also helped by “short covering” moves, but active traders should not forget that both in the ATHEX and in the international markets, “every day is another day”.
This latter point is beginning to apply even within the day, as at the time these lines are being written, government bond yields are moving toward new multi-year highs, with the yield on the US 30-year exceeding 5.5%, while European markets have turned mixed and are far from their initial highs.
The international climate remains fluid, with all fronts remaining open and analysts noting that “investors are still waiting for more details from the Trump - Xi Summit in the US capital, which may have had a strong symbolic character, but did not bring news on issues such as Artificial Intelligence, Taiwan and Iran. The only exception was the statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, exactly as Xi’s plane was landing, that the two sides extended the trade truce for another two months”.
In the ATHEX, everything will continue to be examined “day by day”, while positive corporate results require immediate “cashing in” on the board and willingness for selective placements outside the narrow boundaries of large capitalization.
As for the “big picture”, the market may superficially, that is at index level, be consolidating below the psychological threshold of 2,700 points, with the General Index maintaining relative contact with the recent 17-year highs, however in the middle and lower “layers” of the board, the “stripping” of valuations continues and, with very few exceptions, zero buying and trading interest.
It is absolutely indicative that, in the upgraded domestic stock market, from the beginning of the year until yesterday’s close, the General Index was recording gains of 24.6% and the banking sector index gains of 37.69%, while at the same time dozens of stocks were not only underperforming relative to the General Index, but were also recording even double-digit losses.
More specifically and according to data from Alpha Trust, 73 securities were recording, from the beginning of the year until yesterday, a negative change and another 38 were posting a positive performance, but lower than that of the General Index.
Therefore, unless there is some shocking change in the last quarter, or some deals that will pull entire sectors higher, 2026 too will be a year of a few standouts and more stocks that lagged, with whatever that may entail.
Beyond that and as previously mentioned, all the issues concerning the markets are “on the table”.
“For the investor, the critical question is not simply whether interest rates are rising, but why they are rising and whether the economy and businesses can absorb the higher cost of money, as pointed out by HellasFin.
It is no longer just an energy or geopolitical shock. Higher prices have spread across a wide range of services, from personal care and repairs to other everyday services. This means that inflationary pressures have greater depth and cannot be addressed exclusively through a de-escalation in oil.
At the same time, the global economy after the pandemic operates under different terms. The reshuffling of supply chains, geopolitical tensions, the large liquidity that was channeled into economies and the strong labor market, have created an environment in which demand remains resilient.
This is of particular importance for stocks. The rise in interest rates does not automatically imply a fall in stock markets. If economic growth, revenues and corporate profitability continue to increase at a faster pace than the cost of money, companies can maintain a significant part of their momentum.
It is worth noting that many S&P 500 Companies have not simply passed on the increased cost to prices, but in several cases have also managed to strengthen their profit margins.
On the other hand, oil is emerging as one of the most important short-term risk factors. More expensive oil can sustain inflation, keep government bond yields high and increase the rate at which investors discount future corporate cash flows. That is why a new, strong rise in oil could constitute a more substantial risk for stocks than a one-off Fed rate hike.
The dollar, on the other hand, reacted positively to the rise in interest rates, as the higher-rate environment strengthens the relative attractiveness of US placements. The rise of the US currency is putting pressure on gold, without however, so far, materially changing the technical picture of the precious metal.
Artificial Intelligence remains one of the most important factors shaping expectations in the markets. The discussion, however, has begun to change. From the question of “whether the entire sector constitutes a new stock market ‘bubble’”, interest is gradually shifting to actual profitability, investments and whether the huge expenditures on AI infrastructure can be turned into sustainable cash flows.
The essence for the S&P 500 is that the environment of rising interest rates does not in itself cancel the upward trend. Much greater importance lies in the evolution of corporate profitability, economic growth, US bond yields and, at the present stage, the course of oil.
If energy pressures de-escalate and bond yields stabilize, the environment may remain supportive for large US companies. Conversely, a new sharp rise in oil could force the market to reprice inflation, interest rates and valuations simultaneously.
In conclusion, for the passive investor, consistency in regular placements and the existence of a reasonable liquidity reserve may prove more important than seeking the “perfect” entry moment. For the active investor, correspondingly, greater importance lies in portfolio balance and adjusting risk to changing conditions.
Today’s environment, moreover, is not lacking in investment options. Unlike the period of extremely low or zero interest rates, short-term bonds and several categories of corporate debt once again offer positive returns and in some cases positive real yield, that is, a return higher than inflation, but they also require greater caution in risk selection”, as pointed out in a comprehensive analysis by HellasFin SAEPey.
With the above data, it follows that all market eyes are focused on the next announcements by the central banks.
It is recalled that according to the economic calendar, the next meetings - announcements of the ECB are scheduled for 29/10 and 17/12/2026.
The corresponding ones of the Fed are scheduled for 28/10 and 9/12/2026.
The next scheduled monetary policy meetings of the BoJ are for 30/10 and 18/12 and of the BoE for 5/11 and 17/12.
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, “there is now a 73% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in October”.
On the other hand, as we approach the end of the half-year financial results publication period, namely the end of September, the pace will intensify mainly from mid- and small-cap Companies.
According to the scheduled announcements of first-half results, today FRIGO, SB, EYATH, OLTH, FLEXO, ASTAK and EVROF are publishing.
Coming to the “rest” of today’s session, worth noting are the relatively lower turnover, the retreat of indices and individual securities from the day’s highs and the continuing selective moves of buyers on the large-cap board.
It should be noted the new all-time highs for the OPTIMA stock (+2.33%, but also sales by senior Bank executives) and lower down, the “nonstop” upward move of EXAE (+8.35%), with the stock completing today’s trading at new 220-month highs, confirming the presence of “driving forces” and causing “nerves” to those who accepted Euronext’s public offer.
With mixed moods the major European markets, with active investors having their attention focused on oil and the government bond market.
More specifically, the yield on the US 2-year note is climbing to 4.90%, to 5.51% for the 10-year. The 30-year yield at 5.51% sent a “red alert” signal. The yield on the Greek 10-year note is at 4.43%.
The General Index moved permanently in positive territory, climbing up to 2678.64 points (+1.38%). At 17:00 it stood at 2662.14 (+0.75%) and completed trading at 2665.93 points, with daily gains of 0.9%.
Turnover at 395.9 million, of which 66.2 million concern pre-agreed transactions (REALCONS, CREDIA, OTIMA, ALWN, AVAX, OTE, PPC, ALPHA, PEIR, SAR, ETE, KRI, DAA, MOH, BELA, EUROB), with EUROB, PEIR, OTE and ETE accounting for 48% of the total gross trading value.
Of the total turnover of 395.9 million, 370.6 million concern transactions in FTSE25 shares.
Beyond that, today was the last session of the week, which proved upward, crediting the General Index with weekly gains of 0.17%. Over the same period, the banking sector index posted losses of 0.07%. Since the beginning of the year the GI has posted gains of 25.71%% and the DTR gains of 39.65%.