A return to Greek reality for Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who is returning from the US after a week-long stay and is faced with many and difficult fronts.
The government has a dual goal ahead of it: to complete its term with as many “deliverables” as possible and at the same time maintain its political base strong, with self-reliance remaining the declared, but in practice difficult, electoral goal.
The biggest “thorn” has to do with the citizen’s pocket and concerns the new pressure from the energy crisis. The surge in fuel prices, as a result of the prolonged crisis in the Middle East, is once again creating inflationary pressures and directly burdening households.
At the Maximos Mansion they know that this issue has an immediate political impact, as the picture at the pump is quickly transferred to transportation costs, heating, and ultimately disposable income.
For this reason, curbing fuel price increases is now an immediate government priority. The first announcements on motor fuels are expected on Wednesday, while on October 14, on the eve of the start of heating oil distribution, relevant announcements are also expected on this, within the framework of an overall package of interventions.
The target that has been set is clear: the price of heating oil should be shaped as low as possible below 1.75 euros per liter, the level at which it closed last year.
The prime minister, speaking to Bloomberg, reiterated the need for greater fiscal flexibility at the European level, in order to address the effects of increased energy costs.
Difficult winter
The government narrative holds that there is a fiscal reserve for targeted interventions, precisely because in previous years a policy of fiscal discipline was followed. The bet, however, is whether the interventions will be enough to limit social pressure in a winter that is shaping up to be difficult, as Mr. Mitsotakis himself acknowledges.
The second political front is related to the imminent creation of a new political focal point to the right of ND, the one by Antonis Samaras that is being organized at a rapid pace. The former prime minister and his associates are making contacts with officials from across the country, with a significant part of them coming from the ruling party.
The argument put forward by Samaras’s side is that there is a political vacuum and that a section of society believes it is not represented by today’s ND. This approach seeks to appeal particularly to older blue voters, who today appear distanced.
The latest polling record (by Metron Analysis for MEGA) gives a first indication of the size of the potential pool: 5% says it is very likely to vote for the party being prepared by the former prime minister and 8% fairly likely, that is a total of 13% declares some form of likelihood of voting for it.
In the government they have lowered the tone toward the former prime minister and are for now avoiding direct frontal confrontation. The line being sent out is that the confrontation with Antonis Samaras will be political, centered on the government program, the vision for 2030, and what has already been accomplished, while at the same time reminding of his “sinful past.”
Different voices
There is concern in the government camp also about the different voices within the Parliamentary Group and the incidents that create the image of a government that does not always appear with a unified line.
A characteristic example is the discussion about the Special Consumption Tax on fuels, with MPs (secretary K. Kyranakis, St. Petsas and others) having publicly raised the issue of reducing it, at a time when the Maximos Mansion points out that without a European exemption the margins are limited.
An issue has arisen with public statements by ministers that cause confusion (such as those of G. Floridis on ungovernability and the Turks’ “raid” and of P. Marinakis on the unemployment benefit), but also with the discussion about arrogance in the government, raised by Dora Bakoyannis. Even if top government officials reject this image, the fact that several MPs have publicly referred to related phenomena shows that this is a discussion that has already passed into the interior of ND.
In this environment, another factor is added, namely the fatigue of society from ND’s long governance.
Something that raises the bar of difficulty for the prime minister, who is called upon to constantly prove that he has new political content and a specific plan for the next day.
On the other hand, at the Maximos Mansion they know that elections change the terms of political contest. As is pointed out, at the ballot box the questions become more specific and citizens are called upon to choose between existing alternatives.
Be that as it may, the coming months will show whether the above barriers—especially the inflationary pressures—will be limited to manageable difficulties or whether they will turn into greater political pressure for the government, with unpredictable consequences.