The improvement of the production model of the Greek economy in recent years, with a significant increase in investments and exports, is strengthening productivity and the potential growth rate of GDP, the international credit rating agencies Moody’s, DBRS and Scope find.
The three agencies proceeded in September with upgrades of the creditworthiness or the outlook of the Greek economy, noting that growth is now supported more by investments and exports compared with the past.
This development strengthens the country's growth momentum, while at the same time supporting the process of reducing public debt through the creation of primary surpluses in the budget.
Moody’s: More investments, greater resilience
“There is increasing evidence that the Authorities’ continued focus on structural economic and institutional reforms is bearing fruit in the form of increased economic and fiscal resilience, which exceeds our current expectations,” Moody’s said in its announcement on 18 September.
The agency upgraded the outlook of the Greek economy to positive from stable, maintaining the investment grade at Baa1.
Moody’s noted that Greece’s growth model is driven more by investments and increasingly supports productivity.
It made particular reference to the surge in investments after 2020, which, as it notes, was much broader than the boost provided by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
Almost two thirds of the 5 percentage point increase in investments as a share of GDP after 2020 came from private investments. According to the agency, this means that support from the RRF is more likely to have strengthened the already existing trend rather than caused it.
Record 12.8 billion euros in foreign investments
Moody’s also points to the change in the composition of Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Greece, which now concern real estate less than in the past.
According to OECD data, FDI increased to the record level of 12.8 billion euros in 2025.
At the same time, the contribution of larger businesses, namely those with more than 50 employees, to Greek GDP increased.
The relevant percentage increased to 60% in 2024, from 45% in 2009.
The development is considered important as larger companies have a greater ability to make investments in technology and skills, gain access to foreign markets and utilize diversified sources of financing.
Moody’s estimates that, although the transition of the production model has not been completed, its cumulative effect increases the likelihood that Greece’s potential growth rate, which it estimates at around 1.5%, as well as its fiscal resilience, will exceed current estimates.
DBRS: Productivity is the challenge
The convergence of productivity with the levels of the Eurozone remains a key challenge for the Greek economy and is directly linked to the goal of convergence of real wages.
The DBRS upgraded on 4 September the outlook of the Greek economy to positive from stable, maintaining the rating at BBB.
“Although labor productivity in Greece has improved in recent years, it remains significantly lower than the EU average,” the Canadian agency said.
According to Eurostat data, labor productivity per employed person in Greece corresponded to 67% of the EU average in 2025, based on purchasing power.
DBRS also estimates that the implementation of structural reforms in recent years has increased Greece’s competitiveness and will likely support productivity growth in the medium term.
Scope: One notch below category A
The German agency Scope is moving along the same lines, having upgraded Greek creditworthiness to the BBB+ rating, one notch below category A.
Scope referred to the improvement in the resilience and medium-term growth prospects of the Greek economy, which were strengthened by the continued implementation of reforms, strong investment momentum and the EU’s significant investment programs.
The agency noted that Greece has shown consistently better performance than the EU in recent years, with increased indications of greater resilience compared with the period before the pandemic.
At the same time, it underlined that further indications are needed that increased investments will translate into a lasting increase in productivity and the potential growth rate.
Greece surpassed Spain and Italy
According to European Commission research adviser Dino Pinelli, Greece’s real GDP increased by 10.8% from 2019 to 2025, compared with an increase of 10.2% in Spain and 6.4% in Italy.
These are two more countries that received significant support from the RRF, while in Eurozone countries with smaller allocations of resources from the Fund, GDP growth was only 5.4%.
The overall investment rate in Greece increased by 5.9 percentage points as a share of GDP over the same period, compared with an increase of 3.7% in Italy and 0.3% in Spain.
In the remaining Eurozone countries with a smaller allocation of resources from the RRF, the investment rate decreased by 2%.
As a result, the investment rate in Greece is rapidly converging with that of the Eurozone, which stands at a level higher than 20% of GDP, according to Mr. Pinelli.
Source: ANA-MPA