My dear friends, good day to you!
He has repeatedly ruled out scenarios of early elections and has committed again and again to the spring of next year as to the timing of their conduct. There are serious reasons for the prime minister to insist on this position. There are, however, also reasons why the time until then may prove costly.
The first passes through the pocket. Prices of electricity in the wholesale market have moved noticeably higher, and winter is still ahead of us.
If the trend continues, the problem will not be limited to household bills. It will pass more intensely into the operating costs of businesses, into production, and ultimately into prices on the shelves of supermarkets. And this in a society in which high prices remain one of the most important problems and the government does not have the luxury of another wave of discontent.
The second reason is called Antonis Samaras. The latest polls do not say that a Samaras party will get 12%, 13%, or 16%. They measure potential voting intention for a party that has not even been formed yet, and that is a different thing from the vote at the ballot box. But they do say something that is hard to ignore: different companies identify a “hard” core of about 5%-6% that says it is very likely or certain that it would vote for him, while the overall potential appeal moves in double-digit percentages.
The most important thing for ND is where these voters may come from. Metron Analysis records notable potential appeal even among current ND voters, while other surveys show a greater response among people who voted for it in 2023 but have now moved away.
Today, however, a Samaras party remains a possibility. In a few months it may have a name, executives, mechanism and ballots. But we are not there yet.
There is also a third front. On December 11, the second-instance trial is expected to be held for the Predator case. No one knows whether anything new will emerge, and it would be arbitrary to take that for granted. It is certain, however, that a case with a heavy political past will return to the spotlight.
Against all this there is the other side of the equation.
ND continues to lead its opponents by a large margin, and bringing the elections forward does not secure it self-reliance. Energy prices may ease. The government has time for interventions, starting this Wednesday with the announcements on fuels and continuing on October 14 with heating oil, which may limit the burden and the wear. And, above all, the prime minister has repeatedly committed to ballot boxes in the spring of 2027. Reversing this commitment would require a convincing political explanation.
This is the strong argument in favor of waiting.
The prime minister himself argued at the TIF that “time is not working in favor of the opposition parties.” Possibly. What is critical for the government, however, is whether it is working in its own favor.
Because waiting contains a bet: that the conditions in spring will be better than today’s.
That winter will not burden households and businesses further. That Samaras will not turn potential appeal into an organized electoral presence. That the wiretappings will not return in a politically burdensome way. And that in the meantime the government will recover part of the lost ground.
All this may happen. But then again, it may not.
Because in politics time is an ally only as long as it works in your favor. From the moment it begins to accumulate risks, it acquires a cost.
And the “harsh winter” ahead of us will show whether spring is indeed the best season for ballot boxes.