Dear friends, good day to you!
If the picture recorded today by the polls in France is confirmed, the contest for the succession of Emmanuel Macron may constitute a milestone for the European political scene.
Marine Le Pen stands at 35%-36% in the latest Toluna Harris Interactive survey and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 17%-18%, with both of them advancing to the second round in all five scenarios examined.
In other words, the duel in the next presidential elections in France is shaping up, for the time being, between the extremes. This is a polling snapshot and not a prediction of the result, but the trend is difficult to ignore.
All the more so because it does not concern only France.
In Germany, in the elections of 20 September, Die Linke emerged as the leading force in Berlin with 25.7%, more than doubling its percentage, while CDU and SPD declined significantly. On the same day, in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD emerged as the leading force with 38.2%.
These are obviously not identical political forces, nor voters with the same aims. Equating the two extremes would be as easy as it would be misleading.
There is, however, something that unites them: the ground on which they grow.
High prices, housing, pressure on real incomes, migration, fear of social decline, insecurity in the face of geopolitical developments. And, above all, the alienation of a growing part of society from the traditional parties of power and the conviction that they cannot or do not want to provide answers to its problems.
Besides, one does not need to have been impoverished to seek more radical political solutions. It is enough to fear that one risks losing what one has acquired. For the middle classes in particular, the fear of social descent may prove politically stronger even than poverty itself.
The message has reached Brussels. The European People's Party has already formed the “Win2029” group, three years before the next European elections, seeking a way to win back voters moving to the right. Within it, the discussion is already under way whether it should hold the center or move further right, especially on migration and the green transition.
Here, however, lies the trap. When traditional parties attempt to confront their opponents by adopting part of their agenda, they may reduce the distance between them, but they do not necessarily address the causes that prompted the shift of voters.
Greece is not outside this discussion. And it would be wrong to label as “far-right” anything that is politically to the right of New Democracy. This, however, does not negate the fact that to the right of ND there is now a considerable and fragmented electoral audience.
In the latest Metron Analysis measurement, Greek Solution is recorded at 6.9% and Voice of Reason at 5.3%. At the same time, 12.6% state that they consider it very or fairly likely to vote for a party under Antonis Samaras, which does not even exist yet. Among those who place themselves on the Right, the percentage reaches 21.6%.
And even further to the right there is the case of Kasidiaris, with his political origin in the criminal organization Golden Dawn not allowing convenient confusions with the previous spaces.
The most important thing, however, is not how many parties are crowding to the right of ND. It is why there is an audience for them.
Because in Greece too there are many of the ingredients we encounter in the rest of Europe: high prices, housing, pressure on incomes, insecurity, migration and distrust toward the political system. In a recent measurement, high prices and inflation emerge by a wide margin as the most important problem, followed by the economy, energy, national issues, health, corruption, the rule of law and housing.
This is perhaps the most important message from France and Germany. The extremes are not strengthened in a political vacuum. They feed on problems that remain unsolved, on fears that remain unanswered and on citizens who feel that they are not represented.
And as long as these causes remain, the advance of the extremes is not confronted by denouncing them. It is confronted on the ground that gives birth to them.