The Tsafos beef with EVIKEN over industry-H Allwyn and the three scenarios for Brazil-Tips for Trastor, ATHEX, Jumbo

The “new age” quarrel Tsafos - Kontoleon on LinkedIn. The “returns” for Allwyn’s loss in Brazil. The rebalancing for the banking index was a “storm” that passed.

The Tsafos beef with EVIKEN over industry-H Allwyn and the three scenarios for Brazil-Tips for Trastor, ATHEX, Jumbo
Εικόνα με χρήση τεχνητής νοημοσύνης (AI generated image)

This article is an AI translation of an original piece published in Greek. Read original

ENERGY: The dispute over the real energy cost paid by industry moved to linkedin, on the occasion of a response by EVIKEN president Antonis Kontoleon to a post by Deputy Minister of Environment and Energy Nikos Tsafos.

The latter had cited data, according to which the average wholesale price in Greece in 2026 stands at 106 €/MWh, compared with 118 €/MWh in Bulgaria and 126 €/MWh in Romania, arguing that more batteries do not automatically imply lower prices.

His argument is that while Bulgarian batteries do increase demand during charging hours, when there is no surplus cheap RES generation, they can push midday prices upward.

Mr. Kontoleon picked up the gauntlet and, commenting on the post, focused on the total real cost faced by industry. As he writes, in Greece the balancing cost for industry reaches 25 €/MWh and in the first two weeks of September it even exceeded 35 €/MWh, while in Bulgaria it moves at around 3 €/MWh.

Of course, the balancing market, that is, the mechanism through which ADMIE corrects in real time the deviations between the quantities of electricity that had been scheduled to be produced and consumed and those that the system actually ended up needing, is an expensive sport. And there are complaints everywhere, even in countries full of batteries, such as Britain, where in the first half alone, costs exceeded 4 billion pounds, as the post shows.

Kontoleon, however, also highlights another parameter. The fact that we throw into the “trash” through curtailments, more than 3 TWh of RES generation because there is not sufficient storage capacity.

All this energy could be shifted to peak hours, limiting the operation of natural gas units, fuel imports and emissions.

He even questions to what extent zero prices in the wholesale market at midday reflect the real cost of the system. During those same hours, as he writes, the balancing cost soars both because of payments to expensive natural gas units, which operate for system security reasons, and because of the compensation paid to those RES units that agree to reduce their production.

  

ALLWYN: A reduction of around 6% in this year’s adjusted EBITDA of Allwyn is estimated by Wood to result from the presidential decree for the immediate ban on online betting in Brazil, which will remain in force until early March, unless it is rejected earlier by Congress (note: presidential elections are being held in the country on Sunday).

Allwyn holds 36.75% of Betano, which operates in the Brazilian market, with 44% to 46% of its revenues coming from that specific market. Betano contributed 121 million euros to the net profits of the Allwyn group in the first half, being consolidated under the equity method as an associate company.

A full and permanent loss (note: in the event that Congress ratifies the presidential decree) of Brazil would put annual revenues for Allwyn of around 110 to 120 million euros at risk, corresponding to about 6% of consolidated EBITDA.

 

ALLWYN II: The analysis department of Optima notes the extremely fluid political and economic environment in Brazil. Presidential elections are being held on October 4, while the country is burdened by a significant fiscal deficit.

In the above context, a full and prolonged ban on online betting appears difficult to maintain. It considers the most likely scenario to be the easing of the total ban measure, with the imposition of higher taxation on the profits of gaming companies and/or stricter regulatory rules. Optima therefore examines three scenarios.

The first assumes that the ban will apply only for one quarter (note: the last quarter of this year), with an impact of 60 to 65 million euros on Allwyn’s profits.

The second scenario is that the measure will remain in force for the whole of 2027, having an estimated annual impact on profits of around 220 million euros (55 million euros per quarter, given the reduction in variable costs), corresponding to 0.29 euros per share.

If the estimated loss of the fourth quarter of this year is also added (note: 65 million euros or 0.08 to 0.09 euros per share), the total impact of the second scenario rises to 285 million euros or about 0.37 euros per share.

Finally, in the event of a permanent and full ban on online betting, the annual impact on Allwyn’s profits would be around 132 million euros.

 

ALLWYN III: Sellers, however, clearly had the upper hand in the stock after the developments in the Brazilian market and the consequent reduction in the target price by Eurobank Equities to 11.1 euros.

The stock opened down 1.69% at 11.64 euros and the day’s low was 11.18 euros (-5.57%). It eventually closed at 11.29 (-4.65%) with transactions of 24.2 million euros.

The cumulative losses since the beginning of the year are approaching 41%.

 

JUMBO: The expanding cooperation with the Balfin group is expected to free up capacity in the group’s existing storage facilities and distribution centers.

This is because the agreement between the two for the assignment to the latter of the trademark usage right in the markets of Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan is accompanied by the development of a new logistics support model for the above six markets.

The Balfin group will create a central logistics hub in China and will independently undertake the overall management of the supply chain (from product procurement to distribution) for the aforementioned markets.

Jumbo is discussing a similar supply model with Fox Group, to which it has assigned trademark usage for the markets of Israel and Canada (note: by the end of the year the first Jumbo store in Toronto will open).

In the above context, Jumbo “froze” (note: in a reassessment process regarding the implementation timing) the plan for a new distribution center in Oinofyta.

 

STOCK MARKET: The banking index yesterday covered the “loss” from the rebalancing and the inclusion in developed markets, closing at 3,281 points (+2.44% or 78.3 points) led by Alpha Bank (+3.96%) and Piraeus (+3.6%). It is recalled that the rebalancing of Friday, September 18 had been completed with the index at 3,205 points.

The divergence from international markets was evident yesterday, with the General Index closing at the day’s high and market participants attributing the picture to capital placements-movements in the wake of the upgrade. Hence turnover remains at high levels (yesterday 423 million euros).

Similar was the picture for the FTSE 25, which yesterday gained 118 points and closed at 6,954, almost 2% higher than the 6,833 points where it stood on September 18.

 

TRASTOR: Trastor’s rental income in the first half increased, on an annual basis, by 40%, reaching 26.8 million euros, with the annualized figure at 54.8 million euros, up by 10.2% compared with the end of 2025.

Occupancy reached 100% (note: 99.3%), while the weighted average remaining lease term stood at 6.3 years. Adjusted EBITDA increased at a higher rate than rents (+47% versus 40%) and amounted to 21.2 million euros, thanks to the containment of core operating expenses.

During the half-year, Trastor sold two properties in Marousi, collecting 17.6 million euros (note: profit of 2.3 million euros), while it bought from its “stablemate” Ethniki Insurance three properties for a total price of 38.65 million euros.

Net cash flows from operating activities reached 14.6 million euros, mainly due to operating profitability and favorable changes in working capital.

 

TRASTOR II: The REIC, under the threat of rising interest rates and financing costs, hedged the greater part of its loans. In July, 78% of its total borrowing was either fixed-rate or hedged through interest rate swap contracts.

Finally, on 30/6 it maintained liquidity of around 142 million euros after the successful share capital increase of 150 million euros. Its cash reserves will be strengthened by 3.07 million euros from the sale of a property in Glyfada, for which a private agreement was signed on July 30.

For the remainder of 2026, the investment strategy remains oriented toward selective placements in high-quality properties, with emphasis on modern office spaces and commercial warehouses (logistics).

Following the court ratification of the restructuring agreement of Seagull Transport, Trastor received, in exchange for claims of about 2 million euros, equipment with an appraised value of 1.6 million euros and will proceed in the third quarter to a reversal of an equal part of the related provision (1.9 million euros), which it had formed.

 

PLASTIKA KRITIS: With turnover increasing, on an annual basis, by only 3.3% (211.2 million euros), EBITDA of the Plastika Kritis group increased by 27.3% to 45.8 million euros, with the relevant margin soaring to 21.7% from 17.6%.

The surge in margins and profitability is due, as in the case of Plastika Thrakis, to the fact that the group found itself at the outbreak of the US-Iran military conflict with inventories, benefiting from the international price increase in petroleum derivatives triggered by the conflict.

The subsidiaries in Turkey, France, Russia as well as one of the two Chinese ones also increased sales volumes in the half-year.

Net profits reached 31.7 million euros, a record half-year period, recording an increase of 52.1%. The group’s management estimates that this year’s pre-tax profits will move at significantly higher levels compared with 2025.

 

STAR BULK: Small gains (0.6%) for the stock in yesterday’s session. The close at 25.9 euros is 5.71% higher than the price at which the shares were offered in the context of the Public Offering, but also 8.8% lower than the maximum price of 28.39 euros achieved on September 21.

Yesterday it became known that two independent members of the Board of Directors, Eleni Vrettou and Mahesh Balakrishnan, proceeded with sales of securities. The latter proceeded on September 18 with the sale of 10,000 shares with a total value of 323,400 dollars, while Eleni Vrettou on September 21 disposed of 3,500 securities with a total value of 112,420 dollars.

 

KARELIAS: With the stock price on the board ending the session unchanged, without trades, at 410 euros, the company published half-year results from which it emerges that its cash alone corresponds to 347 euros per share!

Specifically, as follows from the accounting statement, cash and investments amount to 957 million euros. They are analyzed as: 330 million euros cash, 592 million euros bonds and time deposits, and 32 million euros mutual funds.

Of the total bonds held by the company, the overwhelming majority are investment grade. However, it also holds PPC and Metlen securities with a total value of 9.1 million euros.

 

ATHEX: The frenzied rally in the stock continued yesterday, with the close at 11.3 euros and gains at 6.2%. Transactions approached 100,000 pieces with total value at 1.13 million euros.

Since September 11, gains in the stock exceed 41%, amid various scenarios circulating in the market. Among them the possibility that there may be developments regarding Euronext’s intention to acquire the remaining free float percentage.

It is recalled that at the beginning of the year, in the context of a conference call for the presentation of the 2025 annual results, management pointed out that it retains the right to use any lawful method in order to acquire the remaining 24.75% of ATHEX shares (it already holds 74.25%).

It should be noted that the second largest shareholder in ATHEX is Praude Asset Management Limited, which based on the latest disclosure indirectly controls 9.15%.

v
Privacy