Providers' margins to absorb electricity costs are narrowing, the month is once again closing with a double-digit rise in wholesale prices, and everything points to increases in October's green tariffs, further inflating the already high electricity bills for a category that still includes more than 3 million households.
Three days before suppliers' announcements for the next month, and while tomorrow the first round of government support measures for fuels is expected, the picture conveyed by the electricity market is that although it will try once again to shoulder part of the cost, increases should be considered a given.
This is both because the wholesale price for September is once again closing with a 19% increase, and because August had preceded it with a 21% rise compared to July, which in turn had increased by 18% compared to June, with all that this implies for the companies in the sector.
Looking at the figures cumulatively, the price in the wholesale market has increased over the last quarter by 58%, that is from 109.95 euros/MWh in July to 157.36 euros/ MWh in September.
At the same time, green tariffs have increased by an average of 18% over the quarter, as mainly the large providers absorbed as much as they could, depending on their resilience, part or even all of the increases.
This of course does not mean that the market average for the current month, which stands at 20.73 cents/ KWh, compared to 17.45 cents/ KWh in June, is low. It corresponds to the highest average charge for green tariffs since January 2024, when the color categories were established.
The increases were considerably more restrained for eight out of ten households, as much as the market share of the three largest providers, with the average charge standing at 15.2 cents/ KWh in September from 14.9 cents / KWh in July.
The bad scenario
But the margins for self-restraint for small and large players are running out, and the bad scenario is to see in October a massive and significant increase from the entire market, further inflating bills under green tariffs.
In the government they insist that for the time being the issue of horizontal electricity subsidies is not on the table, as the market now has a protection tool against extreme fluctuations, namely the blue, fixed tariffs.
And they argue that apart from the tariff of PPC which is by far the cheapest in the category (11.5 cents/ KWh per kilowatt-hour with a monthly fixed fee of 3.5 euros), there are also other competitive blue tariffs, in the range of 14-15 cents per kilowatt-hour, strengthening consumers' protection options.
In reality, if the average charge for green tariffs shoots up for example to 25 cents/ KWh, it is obvious that the government will deploy horizontal subsidies and the protection framework will be immediately reconsidered, especially when inertia and the inability to assess alternative charges keep close to 3.1 million households on green tariffs (June 2026, RAAEY data), even though they have for months been by far the most expensive.
Looking at RAAEY's tool for the average final charge per tariff category in September (energy and regulated charges), for green products the monthly cost stands at 63.14 euros, for blue at 61.08 euros and for yellow at 56.10 euros, with the latter directly following wholesale market fluctuations.
And although the Greek wholesale market, once again due to the many RES, may for today be among the cheapest in Europe (121.97 euros/ MWh), as we move into winter and photovoltaic production declines, it will become more expensive, as production from natural gas, which remains at 71 euros (122% above last year), will play a greater role.
The dissatisfaction of the Greek government with the inertia of the Commission and the need for it to take a more serious position on the issue of energy security, instead of recommendations to “turn off the lights,” such as Jorgensen's letter to the 27 a few days ago, is said to be conveyed today by Deputy Minister of Environment and Energy Nikos Tsafos at the informal Council of Ministers taking place in Dublin.
The question of course is to what extent this concern is shared by other countries and to what extent this will be reflected in the alliances that will be formed in the Council, or whether the usual scene will be repeated, where everyone goes their own way on major issues, depending on their fiscal endurance.