NBG Securities is significantly raising the bar for ElvalHalcor, increasing its target price for the stock to €5.10 from €3.20 previously, while maintaining the Outperform rating. The new target price implies upside potential of 35% from current levels.
A key catalyst for the revision of estimates is the successful €250 million capital increase in July 2026, which was oversubscribed by 2.75 times and priced at €4.20 per share. The funds will finance part of the 2026-2030 investment program, amounting to approximately €455 million, while total investments through 2030 are expected to exceed €850 million.
The program includes, among other things, a new cold rolling mill and a new foundry in the aluminum sector, capacity expansion at existing units, a new recycling center at Sofia Med and automation investments in the copper sector.
Upon its completion, aluminum capacity is expected to increase to 679 thousand tons from 478 thousand today and copper capacity to 303 thousand tons from 283 thousand tons. Over the long term, the target for adjusted EBITDA is set at €425-475 million.
NBG Securities describes ElvalHalcor's performance in the first half of 2026 as good, highlighting price momentum and the resilience of profitability in the aluminum sector. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 6% year-on-year, while cash flow generation remained strong, leading to a further deleveraging.
However, analysts note that visibility for the short-term outlook remains limited due to geopolitical tensions, increased energy and transportation costs, raw material risks and the 50% U.S. tariffs.
For the 2025-2028 period, NBG Securities forecasts annual growth of 3.5% in sales volume, 9.1% in adjusted EBITDA and 7% in adjusted net profits. At the same time, it estimates that the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio will decline to 1.7x in 2028 from 2.6x in 2025.
As regards dividend yields, the brokerage expects yields of 2.9%-3.5% in the 2026-2028 period, versus 2.9% in 2025.
The 59% increase in the target price is attributed mainly to the incorporation of the new long-term estimates through 2034, following the recent capital increase. NBG Securities notes, however, that based on 2027 multiples ElvalHalcor is trading at a 15% premium versus international peer companies in EV/EBITDA terms and 34% in P/E terms.
Despite the valuation, the brokerage maintains its positive stance, focusing on ElvalHalcor's strong market position, its diversified production base and the long-term trends that strengthen demand for aluminum and copper products.