Greece will have fewer people of working age in the coming decades. For Aris Alexopoulos, the answer lies in the greater participation of women and young people in the labor market, the retraining of middle-aged workers, and increasing productivity.
The head of the OECD's Crete Centre for population dynamics spoke at the conference “Low Birth Rate and Family: Composing Solutions for the Demographic Problem” and in the section “The real picture of Greece: What the numbers show”.
The conference was organized by the Media2day Group through Euro2day.gr, Iatronet.gr and Mama365.gr, under the auspices of the Region of Attica.
As he said, the demographic issue concerns not only the decline in births, but also the increase in life expectancy. This is a change to which society and the economy must adapt.
Two million fewer people of working age
According to the data he presented, in 2050 Greece's productive potential will be about 30% smaller, with nearly two million fewer people of working age. This change, he explained, will affect both the economy and the welfare state, as there will be fewer workers to support a larger elderly population.
Mr. Alexopoulos argued that more structures and services for the elderly are needed, along with investments in prevention and healthy ageing. According to the estimate he presented, if the demographic composition changes as projected and the other factors remain the same, income in Greece will be 15% lower than it would be with today's population composition.
More women in the labor market
One of the possibilities he highlighted is increasing employment. As he mentioned, about 700,000 women of working age are not employed in Greece today. “We need to find them, bring them into the market. They are missing. And they will be missing even more in the future”, he said.
He rejected the notion that women should be removed from work in order to have children. On the contrary, he argued that their work can strengthen family income and facilitate starting a family, provided there is support for childcare. He focused on fathers' participation in parenthood and on the need for daycare centers, even in workplaces.
At the same time, he denounced the discrimination women face during hiring. He described cases in which questions about marriage or a permanent relationship are used indirectly to investigate the possibility of pregnancy.
Middle-aged people should remain in work
Mr. Alexopoulos also spoke about age discrimination. As he noted, middle-aged workers leave companies because they are considered expensive. However, given that younger age groups will be fewer, he argued that it is necessary for middle-aged people to remain in the labor market.
For this to happen, he added, education and retraining are needed, as technologies and job requirements are changing. Among the solutions to staff shortages, he also included better linking education with available positions and the organized recruitment of workers from other countries.
Productivity and the rights of young people
Increasing productivity is, in his view, also critical for improving wages. He called for a change in the productive model, with more activities that can make use of new technologies. He attached particular importance to the spread of artificial intelligence and robotics in small and medium-sized enterprises.
In closing, he also raised a political dimension of the demographic issue. As young people will make up a smaller part of the population, he warned that their electoral power will also be reduced. For this reason, he called for a new “intergenerational contract” that will protect their rights, along with those of older age groups.