The Business Expectations Index in Industry recorded a mild strengthening in September in the IOBE “Economic Conjuncture Survey”, reaching 106.8 from 105.7 points in July.
Among the individual variables of the index, the balance of estimates for orders and current demand improved mildly, the positive balance of forecasts for production in the coming months remained almost unchanged, while the level of inventories increased slightly.
In more detail:
The level of orders and current demand improved slightly to -4 points, with 20% (from 27%) of businesses reporting low orders for the season and 16% reporting the opposite.
In forecasts for the course of production over the next 3-4 months, the relevant balance remained almost unchanged (+23 points from +24 points), with 37% (from 36%) of businesses forecasting an increase in their production in the next quarter and 14% (from 12%) a decrease.
For finished product inventories, the balance stood at +10 points, from +6 points in the previous period, with 16% (from 20%) of businesses reporting inventories higher than usual for the season.
In the export activity indicators, mixed trends were recorded: forecasts for exports in the coming months weakened mildly, while by contrast the negative estimates for foreign orders and demand declined significantly (-14 from -26 points).
The forecast index for employment eased slightly to +6 (from +16) points in September, with the percentage of businesses forecasting an increase in employment standing at 20% (from 23%) and 13% (from 7%) expecting a decrease.
The positive balance in forecasts for price changes from the previous month remained almost unchanged at +17 points from +16 points in July, with 5% (from 7%) expecting a decrease.
It should be noted that uncertainty about the economic environment weakened mildly, as in response to the question concerning the ease of forecasting the company’s future growth, in September 44% of businesses considered that this could be forecast with difficulty or relative difficulty, from 47% in July.
At the level of the main sectors:
In consumer goods, the expectations index weakened mildly to 109.5 points (from 111.4 pts). A significant decline was recorded in forecasts for production over the next 3-4 months, while at the same time the mildly positive estimates for orders strengthened.
In capital goods, the index stood at 127.3 points, from 126.3 in July. The strengthening of the index is due to upward forecasts for production over the next 3-4 months, with orders and demand moving at the levels of the previous period, as did inventories.
The index showed a significant strengthening in intermediate goods, to 99.2 (from 95.7) points, with the negative estimates for orders and demand declining noticeably, production in the coming months improving significantly and inventories escalating sharply.