The Business Expectations Index in Retail Trade recorded a marginal decline in September in the IOBE “Economic Climate Survey”, settling at 116 points, from 116.8 points in July.
Among the individual variables of the index, positive assessments for businesses’ current sales improved significantly, while by contrast forecasts for the course of sales in the next quarter moved sharply downward.
In detail, businesses’ mildly positive assessments for current sales strengthened significantly and stood at +55 (from +41) points, while at the same time positive forecasts for the course of sales in the next quarter stood at +33 points from +51 points in the previous period.
New orders weakened mildly to +30 points from +35 points in the previous period, with inventories easing marginally to +18 points.
On the other hand, optimistic forecasts for employment declined slightly to +22 (from +27) points, while as regards prices, 36% expect an increase, indicative of inflationary pressures.
As regards the degree of uncertainty prevailing in the economic environment, it stood at significantly lower levels compared with July, as 51.7% consider that future growth can be predicted with difficulty or relative difficulty, from 67.4% in July.
In the main sectors examined, expectations are mixed. In detail:
The business expectations index in Food – Beverages – Tobacco improved mildly in September and stood at 105.5 (from 103.5) points, marginally higher compared with last year’s level (104.9 points). Positive assessments for current sales improved slightly to +37 (from +32) points, while at the same time optimistic expectations for sales in the next period strengthened correspondingly to +68 (from +62) points.
Inventories strengthened mildly compared with the previous period and stood at +29 points, while orders to suppliers improved marginally (+55 from +53 points in the relevant balance). The positive balance of employment forecasts strengthened slightly to +70 points, while the already strongly inflationary price trends stood at +42 points.
The business expectations index in Textiles – Clothing – Footwear moved sharply downward, standing at 61.4 (from 103.9) points, markedly lower than the corresponding level last year (83.1 points). Mildly negative assessments for current sales intensified significantly (-65 from -5 points), while at the same time positive forecasts for the next period fell sharply to +12 points, from +62 points in the previous period.
Inventories climbed to +56 points, with orders to suppliers falling sharply to -47 points (from -9 points in the relevant balance). On the other hand, employment forecasts weakened significantly from +66 points and became balanced, while in prices the relevant balance stood at mildly inflationary levels.
Expectations in Household Equipment Goods strengthened slightly and the relevant index stood in September at 105.4 (from 100.9) points, noticeably higher compared with the corresponding period last year (93.8 points). Mildly positive assessments for current sales strengthened further to +45 points, from +6 points in the previous period, while forecasts for sales in the next period moved in the opposite direction and stood at +12 from +21 points in July.
On the other hand, the level of inventories rose significantly, with orders to suppliers weakening mildly to +33 (from +39) points. At the same time, employment forecasts declined sharply and stood at -26 points (from +1 points in the relevant balance), while in prices the relevant index stood at a universally inflationary level.
Business expectations in Vehicles – Spare Parts moved downward, to 128.5 points from 132 points in July, at markedly higher levels compared with the corresponding period of 2025 (96.9 points). The sector’s current sales improved by 12 points and stood at +70 points in September, while by contrast forecasts for sales in the next period weakened sharply to +18 (from +45) points.
Inventories eased mildly (+19 from +25 points), with orders to suppliers strengthening slightly to +20 points. On the other hand, employment forecasts fell sharply to +18 points (from +46 points), while finally, as regards prices, the relevant balance remained at levels normal for the season.
Business expectations in Department Stores moved strongly upward, with the index standing at 140.8 points from 122.6 points in July. Positive assessments for current sales strengthened significantly to +97 (from +67) points, while at the same time forecasts for sales in the next period improved correspondingly and stood at +98 (from +64) points.
Inventories remained at levels normal for the season, while at the same time strongly positive forecasts for orders to suppliers stood at +93 points from +60 points in the previous period. Employment forecasts remained strongly pessimistic at -76 points from -44 points in July, while in prices the relevant index stood at strongly inflationary levels at +98 points.