In September, the Business Expectations Index in Construction in IOBE’s “Economic Climate Survey” stood at 161.7 points (from 179.4 points in July), remaining at a mildly higher level than the corresponding level last year (155.3 points).
This weakening was the result of the significant decline in expectations in public works, with expectations in private works improving mildly.
Of the main variables of the index, the mildly positive forecasts for companies’ work schedule declined slightly, while the positive forecasts for employment weakened more strongly.
In detail, the index for forecasts regarding companies’ work schedule stood at +17 (from +24 points), with 44% of businesses expressing optimism about the level of work in the next quarter.
In the forecasts for employment, the relevant index fell sharply to +12 (from +29) points, with 24% (from 41%) of respondents forecasting an increase in jobs and 13% (from 12%) of businesses estimating a decrease.
In the remaining data, estimates for the current course of work are moving sharply downward and stood at +18 points, from +48 points in July, while at the same time in the field of prices, inflation expectations are at slightly lower levels compared with July (+38 from +43 points for the index).
Finally, 8% of businesses report unhindered business operation. More than half of businesses (54%) now point to the lack of workforce as the main obstacle to their operation, 12% low demand, and 8% other cyclical factors.
In response to the question regarding the degree of uncertainty prevailing in the economic environment, it weakened slightly, as 50.7% of businesses believe that future growth can be predicted with difficulty or relatively difficultly, compared with 53.8% in July.
In detail by individual sectors:
The business expectations index in Private Construction showed a slight improvement and stood at 196.6 points (from 189.1), remaining at high levels and markedly higher than the corresponding level last year (168.6 points).
Positive forecasts for the level of scheduled work strengthened mildly to +65 (from +55) points, while expectations for employment improved marginally, standing at +34 (from +32) points.
As regards the remaining data, positive estimates for the current course of work fell sharply to +37 points, from +69 points in the previous period, while as for prices, inflationary trends weakened marginally compared with July (+54 points for the relevant balance from +55 in July).
Finally, only 5% of businesses report no obstacles to their operation. On the contrary, eight out of ten businesses (80%) report the lack of workforce, 5% the lack of financing, with 3% reporting other cyclical factors as the main obstacles to their operation.
The business expectations index in Public Works Construction is moving steeply downward. It stood at 93.3 points (from 146.7 in July), markedly lower compared with its corresponding level last year (138.9 points).
As for the sector’s work schedule, the July index of -25 points stood at -52 points. In the forecasts for employment, the relevant balance fell sharply to -21 points from +25 points in the previous period.
Most businesses in the sector (76%) expect the same employment positions, while 23% (from 1%) forecast a decrease.
The index of estimates for the level of current work stood at -10 points from +16 points in July, while at the same time the price balance stood at mildly inflationary levels at +15 points.
Finally, 13% of businesses declare unhindered business operation, with 17% reporting the lack of workforce, another 14% the lack of financing, and 16% other cyclical factors as the main obstacle to their operation.