9-month returns: From Cartier gold to the Athens Stock Exchange

The first nine months of 2026 were marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, an energy shock and persistent interest rates. The depreciation of the euro against the dollar acted as a positive currency multiplier for European investors, offering additional returns on investments valued in US currency.

Oil Brent and WTI took center stage, while the Athens Stock Exchange recorded impressive gains of 29.12%, climbing to 17-year highs thanks to the upgrade by FTSE Russell. At the same time, specialized commodities such as uranium and soybeans offered strong protection, while bonds came under pressure and sellers' inflation supported corporate profitability.

In the trading room on Athinon Avenue, on the afternoon of September 30, 2026, the screens recorded an impressive turning point. The General Index closed at 2,738.35 points with a daily rise of 1.05%, sealing the sixth consecutive rising month.

For the stockbrokers monitoring order flows, the overall rise of 29.12% since the beginning of the year was not just a number. The domestic capital market Euronext Athens climbed to its highest level since November 2009, completing a painful 17-year return journey and reaching a total capitalization of 194.6 billion euros.

Behind the numbers lies the structural restructuring of inflows. The official inclusion of the Greek market in the Developed Markets category by FTSE Russell on September 21, 2026 mobilized significant capital flows.

According to analysis by Axia - Alpha Finance, the market entered a “pre-inclusion” phase, where technical outflows from Emerging Markets funds were offset by placements from active and passive mutual funds tracking Developed Markets indices.

The banking sector led the move with an impressive rise of 45.83%. However, a strong structural divergence was observed. The rise was concentrated in large capitalization, with the FTSE Large Cap index strengthening by 31.49%, while small capitalization recorded losses of 8.19%, showing that international institutional investors preferred securities with high tradability.

Interest rates

On the international front, the first nine months of 2026 were marked by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the resulting energy shock. This development forced central banks to keep interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time.

At the meeting of September 10, 2026 in Berlin, the European Central Bank raised key interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the deposit facility rate at 2.50%. A few days later, on September 16, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) also proceeded with a 25 basis point increase, setting the federal funds rate range at 3.75%–4.00%.

Euro/dollar exchange rate

For European investors, the decisive catalyst was not only interest rate decisions, but the slide of the euro against the US dollar. The depreciation of the European currency acted as a positive currency multiplier for all investments valued in US dollars. The change in the exchange rate favored European investors who had dollar-denominated positions. Because the stronger dollar buys (is converted into) more euros.

In the US S&P 500 index, the nominal rise of 11.78% in dollars turned into a return of 15.90% in euros, offering a currency benefit of 4.12 percentage points. In gold, the decline of 3.75% in dollars was limited to just -0.19% in euros. By contrast, in assets with a negative return in dollars, the impact is less than one-for-one, limiting the absolute benefit, as happened in frozen orange juice.

Oil

Oil emerged as the central protagonist of the markets. The price of Brent surged above 102–103 dollars per barrel, recording a rise of 61.14% in dollars and 67.03% in euros. US WTI crude strengthened by 58.16% in dollars (+63.91% in euros). The sharp increase in energy costs prevented the premature easing of monetary policy, putting pressure on fixed-income markets.

Bonds

The German 10-year bond recorded losses of 4% in euros, the Greek 10-year bond fell by 5.00%, while the yield of the US 10-year bond, reaching the 5%–5.34% range, led to a decline of 5.00% in dollars, which was limited to 1.50% in euros due to exchange rates.

From Uranium and diversification

Alongside traditional categories, particular investment interest is found in commodities. Natural uranium posted an impressive rise of 30.20% in dollars and 34.80% in euros. The rise is due to the rapid expansion of Artificial Intelligence data centers (AI Data Centers). Demand created increased needs for uninterrupted zero-carbon electricity, leading to energy supply agreements from nuclear plants, while supply remained tight due to delays in the start-up of new mines.

Commodities

In the agricultural commodities market, soybeans strengthened by 20.40% to 25.20% in dollars (24.70% to 29.70% in euros). The upward move was fueled by increased domestic processing demand in the US for the production of renewable diesel and biofuels. In the livestock sector, live cattle recorded gains of 8.50% to 14% in dollars (12.40% to 18.10% in euros), as the total herd size in the US stood at the lowest level of recent decades due to a preceding drought.

On the opposite side, frozen concentrated orange juice suffered a violent correction of -37.20% to -47.60% in dollars (-34.80% to -45.70% in euros). The historically high prices of the previous year destroyed consumer demand, forcing food industries to change recipes, while the gradual recovery of production in Brazil restored supply.

“Sellers' inflation”

The resilience of equity markets in this high-interest-rate environment is interpreted through the academic theory of “Sellers' Inflation” (Sellers' Inflation / Profit-Led Inflation), as formulated by Weber & Wasner (2023). When supply shocks occur, oligopolistic businesses with strong pricing power do not limit themselves to passing on costs.

They use the generalized climate of high prices as a mechanism of tacit coordination, increasing selling prices more than the actual rise in production costs and widening their profit margins.

As studies by Bilbiie (NBER) document, due to the lag in the adjustment of nominal wages, real unit labor cost declines. This causes a redistribution of national income from labor to capital, following this sequence: Cost shock, price increase greater than margins, wage lag, strengthening of earnings per share and support of savings.

FactSet data confirm this mechanism. For the third quarter of 2026, the estimated earnings per share increase (EPS) for S&P 500 companies stood at 29.1% year-on-year. In Europe, LSEG I/B/E/S data showed a profit increase of 19.4% for the STOXX Europe 600, with the energy sector recording an estimated profit surge of 98.6%. Large-cap multinational companies functioned as real assets, protecting their profitability and offering a defensive buffer to investors.

In an interview with the Financial Times on October 2, 2026, Donald Quintin, chief executive of Lone Star Funds, underlined the dual aspect of this period: while multinationals with pricing power prosper, businesses with unhedged debt face serious pressure on their cash flows.

* This article is purely informative in nature and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities.