The two major war conflicts currently underway are thousands of kilometers apart. This, however, does not prevent the risks they create from converging.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is moving ever deeper into the rear, with strikes by both sides on critical infrastructure, creating fears of a further widening of the war and a serious humanitarian crisis in Ukraine this winter.
In the Gulf, the current US strategy toward Iran has produced results, but it does not appear to be leading to a resolution of the crisis. The opposite is more likely to happen.
On both fronts, the possibility of a new escalation remains strong, at a time when it is now becoming clear that their economic consequences are adding up, to the detriment of the European and global economy.
In Russia, Ukrainian drones have caused serious damage to refineries and energy infrastructure, forcing it to drastically reduce production and limit fuel exports, intensifying shortages in the global market.
Russia's response was merciless, as it dramatically increased strikes on the Ukrainian energy system, which are expected to intensify as winter approaches, with the risk of a serious living problem arising in a large part of the country.
At the same time, the mutual strikes in the Black Sea are disrupting the transport and exports of agricultural products, valuable to the global market.
In short, the vicious cycle that intensified with Ukraine's systematic strikes deep into Russian territory has made key infrastructure of the two adversaries into targets, affecting the economies and daily life of a large part of the planet.
The worrying signs of expansion
There is, however, another danger. The weapons and technological means with which the Ukrainians strike deep inside Russia are provided to a large extent by the West, with Europe in a leading role.
Its political leaders insist that they support Ukraine, while avoiding direct involvement in the war. Russia, however, does not seem to share this view. And the more the strikes inside its territory multiply, the thinner the "red line" becomes.
Indicative is the case of Kaliningrad, which recently came to light. Moscow officially warned NATO that it could resort even to nuclear weapons if the Alliance attempted to cut off or attack the Russian enclave.
It had been preceded, in August, by an unannounced NATO operation around Kaliningrad, which, according to a Western military source cited by Reuters, demonstrated the capability to disrupt communications, radar, and air defense in the area.
And shortly afterward, there were reports in Great Britain highlighting that specific area as something like Putin's "Achilles' heel".
In other words, the margins for miscalculation, accident, or misinterpretation of the opponent's intentions are beginning to shrink even though quite a few politicians in Europe and the US seem to ignore the danger.
From Ukraine to Hormuz
In the other great war of the era, the picture is different, but the conclusion is similar. Trump's lightning operation, together with Israel, has developed into a long-lasting wound for the wider region and the global economy, with no visible signs of an agreement.
The American naval blockade has almost stopped Iranian crude exports through Hormuz, while to some extent US forces appear to have regained partial control of the Strait.
The Iranian economy is under great pressure, with serious problems in foreign exchange, imports, and inflation. Some analysts warn that as Tehran's economic room for maneuver narrows, its incentive to escalate militarily may grow in order to change the terms of the negotiation.
In the meantime, of course, the economic effects are becoming increasingly acute:. They start at the pump, raise inflation, and end up in the international bond market, which appears to be on the verge of crisis, at least in countries that have large debts and corresponding deficits.
Indicatively, the yield on the British 30-year touched 6%, a high of almost three decades, while the American 30-year exceeded 5.6%, a level it had not seen since 2002.
In the EU, France's 10-year bond appears to be moving full speed toward 5%, with the governor of the country's Central Bank warning a few days ago that everything must be done to avoid a sovereign debt crisis.
However, the pressure has already begun to pass on to food, as the FAO food price index was last August at its highest level since the end of 2022. In the coming months, the increases will also make their appearance on the shelf.
A "perfect storm"
From an economic point of view, the situation is beginning to resemble a perfect storm for countries with large public debt that have not managed to balance the deficits in their budgets.
Because the significant increase in borrowing costs is coming at exactly the moment when governments are being pressured to spend more on defense, energy, and support for households suffering from high prices.
Migration remains a key factor in the rise of "radical Right" parties. However, high prices, the loss of purchasing power, and insecurity about the future are developing into factors of drastic influence on voters, as was also seen in the recent elections in German states, with the AfD reaching 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt.
This is perhaps the deeper problem at the dangerous crossroads we have reached, as the political consequences may prove more permanent.
From now until the end of 2027, let us recall, important elections will be held in countries equivalent to 1/3 of the EU's members. Among them Greece, France, one of its two "great powers", and Italy.