Oil exports from the Persian Gulf are increasing, oil prices are falling, stocks are strengthening.
With Brent heading toward $101.60 and U.S. crude at $90.09 per barrel, buyers are returning to the stock markets.
A first positive indication from the Asian stock exchanges, the yield on the U.S. 10-year at 5.258% and on the 30-year at 5.618%, the VIX/CBOE at 15.31 (-6.54%) and S&P500 futures 0.21% lower.
Investors’ attention is on the Persian Gulf and the Fed, with Wednesday being an important day as the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve will be published. A dramatic reduction in forecasts for a possible interest rate increase at the October 28-29 meeting appears to be opening a window of opportunity for long investors, in the final stretch toward the U.S. midterm elections, on Tuesday, November 3.
The correction that preceded it, in the previous week, has shaped lower valuations, relatively more rational for AI groups and sectors/businesses negatively affected by the more expensive cost of money. In this sense, the effort of more short-term investors to seize the opportunity and move toward higher price levels should not be ruled out.
From 7,712 points, with a small discount in S&P500 futures, with volatility in the 7,700-point area considered normal.
From 25,224.95 points for the DAX, from 7,897.19 for the CAC40 and from 298.04 for the EuroStoxx Banks. With losses of 5.59% for the European bank stocks index last week, it fully justifies the correction of the DTR to 3,135.08 points.
With, comparatively always, increased transactions, the correction for the leading sector, for the shares of all four systemic banks as well, with the additional trigger being warnings from foreign houses (IMF, S&P, e.t.c ) about the banks’ loan portfolio.
A sector with broad outperformance for 2026, with double-digit returns and a full "cash register" for foreign fund managers, it was logical for selling to emerge. Part of the "tail" remains for liquidation; it remains to be seen whether the change in trend in Europe could similarly affect traders on Euronext Athens.
For the DTR the trend is short on a weekly basis, however it can easily shift to long if buyers return to EuroStoxx Banks shares. Given the combined bank-heavy composition of our "shallow" market, the development depends on "foreign hands".
However, beyond banking stocks it appears that part of the "foreign money" is acting selectively, with stock picking having a positive result in specific large-cap cases. Viohalco, Metlen, Cenergy Holdings, GEK TERNA and another 2-3 "front-line" blue chips had inflows despite the generally selling trend that prevailed on Friday.
The members of the community are prepared for a session of similar direction, focusing on the individual specifics of certain stocks/companies.