Jair Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected performance in the first round of the presidential elections in Brazil improves, according to Eurobank Equities, the prospects for Betano, Allwyn’s main arm in the market.
Bolsonaro received about 47% of the vote versus Lula’s 45%, and prediction markets now give him an approximately 85% chance of prevailing in the second round on October 25. He has criticized the blanket ban and appears more positive toward sports betting, although he is opposed to online casinos.
Eurobank estimates that a possible change of government could improve Betano’s medium-term prospects in Brazil, mainly in sportsbook. However, it considers stricter regulation more likely rather than a full return to the previous regime, with restrictions on advertising, deposits, and betting.
At the same time, judicial and parliamentary proceedings remain ongoing, increasing uncertainty over the duration of the suspension and the final regulatory framework.
Eurobank now assumes zero contribution from Betano Brazil in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, with a restart from the second quarter of 2027. The two-month suspension reduces Betano’s EBITDA for 2026-27 by about 20%-21%, Allwyn’s consolidated EBITDA by about 3%, and adjusted net earnings by 5%-6%.
Despite the better political odds, Eurobank maintains a “Hold” and a target price of 11.10 euros, noting that the Allwyn story remains in a phase of significant developments.