BUDGET: Quite a few touches of… over-optimism are hidden in the picture of macroeconomic forecasts included in the draft submitted yesterday to Parliament, if one compares them with the most recent corresponding forecasts of the Bank of Greece (English-language bulletin on the economy).
In many key figures, convergences are observed, if not identical forecasts (inflation, unemployment, etc.). However, the BoG is clearly more restrained in its forecast for 2027 growth than the Ministry of National Economy and Finance: it “sees” a slowdown in GDP growth from 2% to 1.9%, while the budget reflects a forecast for acceleration to 2.3%.
We are certainly not talking about a dramatic divergence, but it is not negligible either. The point, however, where there seem to be major differences in estimates and expectations is investments and the “next day” of the Recovery Fund.
The ministry forecasts the maintenance of high growth rates in investments in 2027 as well (7.7% in 2026 and 7.9% in 2027), while the BoG anticipates a sharp slowdown to 5.5% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, something that reflects the completion of disbursements from the Recovery Fund.
In this case, we are indeed talking about major differences: 7.9% is a double rate of increase in investments compared with the conservative 3.8% that the BoG “sees,” and this explains to a very large extent the differences in forecasts for 2027 GDP.
Let us note these today and we will see later who will be vindicated in the informal bras de fer: the restrained BoG, or the optimistic Ministry of National Economy and Finance?
PASOK: After the “transfer” of Evangelos Apostolakis to PASOK, time is tightening for two other cases: Theodora Tzakri and Nina Kasimati.
If the discussions bear fruit, these will be “returns,” since they belonged to PASOK before 2012 (when they left for SYRIZA, which was then galloping toward power under Alexis Tsipras), but it remains to be seen whether they will prove to be… “disasters,” according to a well-known popular lyric.
For example, the people who are in talks with those responsible at Charilaou Trikoupi about their participation in the Pella ballot are keeping a wait-and-see stance, waiting for the Tzakri case to be closed.
“She has fanatical voters who follow her to whatever party she goes to; if she is a candidate, she will sweep the preference votes,” are the messages they are (reportedly) sending, referring to the local particularities expressed by the former SYRIZA/former Kasselakis/current independent MP.
PASOK II: The case of Ms. Kasimati (also a former SYRIZA/current independent MP who had flirted with the Kasselakis party without joining it) is different, because the objections arise from the “Papandreou” camp, due to the fierce political but also personal attacks she had launched against George Papandreou during the time of the first memorandum.
The presidential team of PASOK wants her because she has great appeal in Piraeus B and, as a long-standing party cadre says, “if George (Papandreou) has no problem coexisting with her, what can I say”…
Besides, according to those reacting to her “return,” she has exceeded the limit of 20 years’ stay on the parliamentary benches and, therefore, cannot be a candidate again, according to the “cutter” voted at the congress in March (editor’s note: the solution for her to “run” as a collaborating figure with PASOK and not as a member so that the “cutter” does not catch her is provoking understandable irony…).
On the contrary, another transfer seems to be proceeding more smoothly, that of Myrto Korovesis: she was on SYRIZA’s East Attica ballot, followed Mr. Kasselakis and became vice president in his party, resigned, took over the seat in the area when Gorgos Karameros handed it over (who has already joined ELAS), and now is “discussing” the move to PASOK.
As a humorous “green” says… “it’s not only the noose that is tightening, the milks are tightening too.”
TSIPRAS: In the coming days, the door-to-door campaign of ELAS teams begins, with the aim “that no region, prefecture, town be left that we do not go to.”
On the front line will be the new faces surrounding Alexis Tsipras in the venture and former members (or even local cadres) of SYRIZA, who have joined it.
They will not be current MPs who have become independent and have not handed over their seat, since the former prime minister remains unmoved in his position: no current MP will get a ticket for ELAS… not even for its deck.
TSIPRAS II: For the party’s campaign, beyond the tours, particular weight will be given to the popularization of positions/proposals, also prompted by the good “reception” among citizens of Tsipras’ recent intervention on the “four tools” for dealing with fuel price hikes - and it somewhat limited the previous missteps of inexperienced (politically) cadres with the famous “boxes” for taxing great wealth.
Through this process, Amalias hopes to win (to a degree, at least) the bet of the “recognizability” of the new cadres as well: “they are front-line, they have stood out in their professional fields, they are well-formed, but people do not know them,” party cadres admit.
So the question “with whom will Tsipras govern” is judged to require an immediate answer.
BIOZOKAT: Something is not going well in the relations between the company’s shareholders and this now has a judicial imprint. Neofarm IKE, as the column learned, appealed to the Court of First Instance seeking the annulment of decisions of the General Assembly of the animal feed industry.
SKLAVENITIS: A 30% that has its significance for Sklavenitis and not only. In the environmental permit of the store in Palaio Faliro, an explicit target has now been set to reduce emissions by at least 30% by 2030, based on 2019.
What does this mean? That the carbon footprint is beginning to pass from ESG reports into the actual terms of operation.
OMIROS: The food industry is seeking value even in whey. In the environmental terms of Omiros’ unit in Megarhi Trikalon, it is provided that it may be made available to other facilities as a raw material, to livestock units as feed, or be utilized for the production of new products.
A small detail? Not exactly. In an industry with pressed costs, even what is left over must now leave something behind…
CHIOS BEER: The company is adding one more zero to its production. From 200 thousand euros to 2 million euros rises the value of the mechanical equipment of the unit at the Malo location, with the declared capacity reaching 8 tons daily.
It is not a small step for a craft brewery. The question now is whether, together with production capacity, its market can also grow at the same rate.
KRITHARIOTI: A 20.4% increase in sales was recorded, as the column learned, by the company of the well-known Greek fashion designer Celia Kritharioti, wife of shipowner Dr. Nikos Tsakos, with whom a few days ago she celebrated in New York the first 25 years of marriage.
The turnover of the fashion company rose to 585.6 thousand euros. Growth, however, did not pass to the bottom line. Increased administrative and distribution expenses led losses to 71.4 thousand euros, from 49.8 thousand euros in 2024.
On the other hand, the company closed the year with 604 thousand euros in cash and without long-term liabilities.
TOI & MOI: The well-known clothing company is being strengthened with properties of the Papazafeiropoulos family.
Charalambos and Ioannis Papazafeiropoulos, members of the family behind the well-known Greek fashion company, are proceeding with the contribution of family property in the context of a share capital increase.
These are residences and plots in Kotili Arcadia, the family’s place of origin. The value of the package that has been appraised reaches 182,400 euros.
LONDON: For those Greeks who follow the London real estate market, the figures published yesterday by Bloomberg are of particular interest.
Prices in expensive properties in the British capital are now about 27% lower than the historic high of 2014, according to Savills’ Prime London index.
If inflation is also taken into account, the decline already exceeds… 49%. In other words, in real terms, London’s luxury properties are a breath away from having lost half their value in about 12 years!
And if the trend does not change soon (something not foreseen), the -50% threshold is expected to be broken within the first months of 2027.
The beginning of the downward walk came as early as 2014, when then Chancellor George Osborne significantly increased the tax burden on expensive transactions, while additional burdens followed for second-home owners, foreign buyers, and purchases through companies.
Then came Brexit, the pandemic, the abolition of the preferential regime for non-doms, and generally a much less friendly environment for international wealth.
LONDON II: The result is more than impressive. An apartment in the famous Academy Gardens in Kensington was recently sold for about £10 million, almost at half the price at which it had been offered on the market in 2007!
Does this mean that the time has come for purchases at a bargain price?
Savills itself does not see a return to nominal price increases before 2028, while the company’s head of residential research Lucian Cook admits that there is not yet the catalyst that would trigger a strong recovery.
On the other hand, however, he also said something else, which hardly goes unnoticed. That London is now beginning to look very cheap. Provided, we say, that the former empire does not continue the course of recent years. Because economically at least, year by year it seems to be going from bad to... worse!
LONDON III: Meanwhile, British shipping billionaire David Reuben moved in the summer to Monaco, according to the Times, following his younger brother Simon, who has lived there for about 40 years. The total fortune of the two brothers is estimated at nearly £28 billion.
The 88-year-old David Reuben is co-owner of RB Shipping, the shipping arm of Reuben Brothers, as well as a real estate investor and shareholder of Newcastle United.
RB Shipping was founded in 2014 and has been active in tankers, bulkers, and offshore, while today it has a fleet of 18 ships.
The move is part of the broader wave of departures of the ultra-rich from London, following the changes in the tax regime for non-doms. Among others, John Fredriksen moved private Seatankers Management out of Britain in 2024, while Monaco has evolved into an important hub for shipowners.
Among them Emanuele Lauro, Svein Moxnes Harfjeld and Tor Olav Trøim.