With momentum carried over from the current year and with the main drivers income tax (mainly due to increases in wages and pensions) as well as the VAT of… high prices, the tax revenues of the state budget will continue to exceed targets in 2027 as well at a rate of 2.8%, a percentage higher than the projected GDP growth (2.3%).
Tax revenues are expected to amount to 77.878 billion euros, increased by 2.149 billion euros (2.8% compared with the current year), of which 29.4 billion euros will come from income tax and 30.6 billion euros from VAT.
The increased VAT receipts, a result of high inflation, are expected to offset almost in their entirety the losses that the state budget will “record” from non-recurring revenues due to the gradual completion of Recovery Fund projects and the completion of concession contracts such as that of the Egnatia Motorway.
According to the draft state budget submitted yesterday to Parliament, revenues from taxes on goods and services are projected to amount to 42.431 billion euros, increased by 179 million euros or 0.4% compared with 2026.
Specifically:
- Revenues from VAT are expected to amount to 30.581 billion euros, reduced by 196 million euros compared with 2026 due to lower revenues by 911 million euros from the implementation of RRF projects as a result of the program’s expiration. Additionally, it should be noted that the year 2026 includes non-recurring (one - off) VAT revenues of 306 million euros from the Egnatia Motorway concession contract and
- Revenues from excise taxes are projected at 7.312 billion euros, increased by 136 million euros compared with 2026.
- From taxes and duties on imports revenues of 533 million euros are projected, increased by 72 million euros compared with 2026. This increase is mainly due to the application for a full year of the EU customs measure, effective from 1/7/2026, which concerns the abolition of the duty exemption for low-value parcels imported from third countries and the imposition of a flat fee of 3 euros per item for these shipments.
Property taxes
- Revenues from regular real estate taxes are expected to amount to 2.365 billion euros, reduced by 48 million euros compared with 2026 due to the abolition of ENFIA for primary residences in settlements with a population of up to 1,500 inhabitants as well as the recent extension of the above intervention regarding the abolition of ENFIA in settlements of up to 2,000 inhabitants and in settlements of up to 2,200 inhabitants in Western Macedonia.
- From other taxes on production revenues of 614 million euros are projected, reduced by 147 million euros compared with the 2026 estimate mainly due to the intervention for the gradual abolition of the business tax also for legal entities.
Income taxes
Revenues from income tax are expected to amount to 29.376 billion euros, increased by 2.038 billion euros or 7.5% compared with 2026. Specifically:
- Personal income tax is projected to be shaped at 16.995 billion euros, increased by 620 million euros compared with 2026 mainly due to the increase in dependent employment earnings, pensions, the expected new increase in the minimum wage as well as due to the further reduction in unemployment and:
- Corporate income tax is projected to amount to 9.844 billion euros, increased by 1.302 million euros compared with 2026 due to the estimated increased profits of businesses during the current tax year, which will be declared in 2027.
- Capital taxes are projected to amount to 262 million euros, showing no change compared with 2026, while:
- Revenues from other current taxes are expected to amount to 2.298 billion euros, increased by 54 million euros compared with 2026.
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They “ran” at 2.8%
With additional tax revenues of 2.085 billion euros compared with the target (75.729 billion euros in total), this year’s budget appears to be closing. The increase of 2.8% is mainly due:
- To the strengthening of revenues from Value Added Tax (VAT) by 1.548 billion euros compared with the budget, including the collection of a non-recurring (one - off) amount of 306 million euros from the Egnatia Motorway concession contract, which had not been projected and:
- To the increase in wages and the reduction in unemployment, which mainly affect revenues from personal income tax (increase by 560 million euros compared with the budget). In addition, travel receipts recorded a significant rise of 10.4% in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the corresponding seven-month period of 2025 and versus 6.5%, which was the annual budget forecast, with the result that tax revenues are positively affected.
Uncertainty
Under the current economic conditions shaped by the intensifying energy crisis, there is great uncertainty about the course of receipts on the one hand and the servicing of the cost of offsetting the pressures from energy prices on households and businesses on the other.
The additional fund of 200 million euros that has been provided for in the draft, for emergency needs that may arise from the energy crisis - and which is added to the 200 million euros that are still in the “piggy bank” for the same purpose - seems negligible in the face of the needs being formed for a basic support of citizens.
Indicative of the financing needs to support citizens from the energy crisis is the fact that only for the subsidy of motor fuel at the pump by 20 cents (including VAT) for April and May, 15 cents for June, 10 cents for August and September and 15 cents for the first half of October, the fiscal cost amounted to 216 million euros.
Meanwhile, the cost for the fuel card (fuel pass) for the period April – May 2026 reached 113 million euros, amounting to 60 euros in island areas and 50 euros in the rest of Greece.