“Behind the big headlines lie optimistic assumptions, selective comparisons, measures postponed for later, and chronic weaknesses that are glossed over,” notes in a lengthy statement the ELAS sector head for Finance and former head of the Parliamentary Budget Office, Fragkiskos Koutentakis, regarding the new state Budget.
In detail, he states:
“The draft 2027 Budget attempts to present an image of strong growth, generous benefits, and a spectacular reduction in debt. Behind the big headlines, however, lie optimistic assumptions, selective comparisons, measures postponed for later, and chronic weaknesses that are glossed over.
The editing of forecasts
The first sleight of hand concerns the forecasts. The government compares its own estimate of 2.3% growth in Greece with the Commission’s spring forecast of 1.2% for the Eurozone. It omits that in that very same report the Commission forecast growth of only 1.6% for Greece. Thus, a difference of 0.4 percentage points is presented, with the appropriate editing, as a difference of 1.1 points.
Growth with only one engine
And this optimistic forecast is based to a large extent on the assumption that investments will increase by 7.9%. Of the 2.3 points of growth, about 1.5 are expected to come from investments - precisely in the year when the Recovery Fund ends. The draft itself admits that any delay in the implementation of investments could overturn the entire scenario.
Forecasts that keep shrinking
Recent experience requires even greater caution. The forecast for 3% growth in 2024 ended up at 2.1%. The 2.3% forecast for 2025 was also reduced to the same rate. And the 2.4% forecast for 2026 has already been revised to 2%. Despite all this, the government once again presents the optimistic scenario almost as a certainty.
Increases eaten up by high prices
At the same time, the picture for incomes is much more restrained than government advertising claims. Nominal wages are projected to increase by 3.9%, but with inflation at 2.6% the real increase is limited to about 1.4%. And lower inflation does not mean lower prices. It means that already increased prices will continue to rise, just at a slightly slower pace.
Tax cuts with more taxes
The government talks about tax cuts, but total tax revenues are projected to increase by 2.15 billion euros. Almost all of this increase comes from income tax, the revenues of which are increasing by 2 billion euros. Specifically, personal income tax yields an additional 620 million euros and corporate tax an additional 1.3 billion euros. The individual relief measures, therefore, do not change the basic fact: the state will collect more from workers, households, and businesses.
Benefits and the fine print
Even the most prominently advertised measures come with significant “fine print.” The minimum wage of 1,000 euros is not coming in 2027, but in January 2028. The Christmas bonus for public employees is 500 euros gross, that is, 257 to 389 euros net, and will be paid once in December 2027. The 400-euro support for pensioners is annual, not monthly. These are much smaller interventions than the impression created by the headlines.
Loans baptized as benefits
The same applies to financing programs. The 2 billion euros of “My Home III” and the 1.5 billion euros for small and medium-sized enterprises are presented almost as benefits, while they are mainly loan instruments that will have to be repaid. Especially in housing, boosting demand through new loans, without a corresponding and measurable plan to increase the supply of homes, risks fueling prices even further.
The debt behind the percentage
Equally selective is the presentation of public debt. The drop from 136.7% to 128.8% of GDP is positive. In absolute amounts, however, the debt is projected to decrease by only 4.4 billion euros. A large part of the decline in the ratio results from the increase in nominal GDP. At the same time, interest expenses are increasing by about half a billion euros.
What is hidden behind the shop window
And while the shop window is being showcased, critical problems remain on the sidelines. The current account deficit reached 9.5 billion euros in the first half of 2026. Imports are projected to increase faster than exports. The state’s overdue obligations to private parties remain at 2.65 billion euros. These are not details, but serious indications of the productive and operational weaknesses of the economy and the state.
The vague promise for electricity
Finally, the promise to reduce the retail price of electricity “by up to 30%” by 2029 appears without detailed calculation and a specific price path. “Up to” can mean anything - and is usually used when no one wants to commit to something specific.
From communication to the real economy
The economy does not need yet another budget of communicative impressionism. It needs realistic forecasts, a fair distribution of burdens, productive investments, and a substantial improvement in real income. The state budget is not an advertising leaflet. And citizens are not an audience for government editing”.